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There is a free 5K Sportsbook Pool for NFL Week 4. You have to pick each of the 14 games on Sunday against the spread, and the higher you finish on the leaderboard, the more money you earn.
Let’s take a look at all 14 contests slated for Sunday, including my five personal favorites.
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears (-6.5)
The Pick: Lions +6.5
This is simply too much line value to pass up with the Lions. They’re currently listed as just three-point underdogs on DraftKings Sportsbook, but we can get them at +6.5 in this pool.
The Lions are winless to start the year, but they have played better than expected. They were on the verge of an upset victory vs. the Ravens last week before Justin Tucker’s NFL record 66-yard field goal as time expired.
That was a much better performance than the Bears put forward last week. They set back modern football with their offensive output, racking up just 1.1 yards per play. That’s the second-lowest mark this century. They will likely have a different quarterback after starting rookie Justin Fields last week, but that isn’t going to be a magic pill for their struggling offense. The Lions should be able to keep this competitive.
Indianapolis Colts @ Miami Dolphins (-2.5)
The Picks: Colts +2.5
This is one of my favorite spots of the week. I absolutely love the Colts to cover vs. the Dolphins.
I was on the Dolphins +3.5 last week vs. the Raiders, and they ended up delivering a slim cover with a three-point loss to the Raiders. That said, they were undoubtedly lucky. They jumped out to a 14-point lead thanks to a defensive score, but they still needed some late magic to force overtime. The Dolphins were ultimately outgained by more than 150 yards, which is not a good formula moving forward.
The biggest concern is their passing game, particularly with Jacoby Brissett under center. Calling Brissett a disaster would be an insult to disasters. He’s racked up just 384 yards on 89 pass attempts this season, which is almost impossible in today’s NFL. The result is an average of 3.8 adjusted yards per attempt.
The Colts have had a brutal start to the season, but their schedule hasn’t done them any favors. They’ve opened with the Rams, Seahawks, and Titans, so they get a bit of a reprieve vs. the Dolphins. I expect them to take advantage.
New York Giants @ New Orleans Saints (-6.5)
The Pick: Giants +6.5
The Saints are another team that seems extremely overvalued at the moment. They’ve won two of their first three games, but their offense has been pretty anemic. They rank 31st in the league in yards per game, but their defense has carried. They’ve generated seven turnovers, and they’ve managed to score one touchdown. Eventually, their turnover luck is going to even out, and when it does, I’m not sure their offense can pick up the slack.
The Giants have yet to win a game, but they have kept all of their contests competitive. They’ve lost the past two weeks by a combined four points, and they were hanging in vs. the Broncos before a late long touchdown run by Melvin Gordon. Overall, this spread seems too high.
Additionally, teams that enter Week 4 without a win tend to cover. They’ve posted a record of 35-25-2 against the spread since 2004, good for a return on investment of 12.7%.
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (-3.5)
The Pick: Seahawks +3.5
These teams are currently occupying the bottom two spots in the NFC West, making this an important contest for both squads. One of the Cardinals or Rams will get to 4-0 this week, so they can’t afford to fall too far behind.
I’ll roll the dice with the Seahawks. Russell Wilson is one of the best quarterbacks in the business as an underdog, posting a career record of 23-10-2 ATS during the regular season. He’s also historically been elite at covering the spread following a loss, bouncing back with a record of 26-14-4 ATS the following week.
The 49ers are also a run-first team currently dealing with a host of injuries at running back. Raheem Mostert, Elijah Mitchell and JaMycal Hasty all sat out last week’s game, leaving rookie Trey Sermon to handle most of the carries. He didn’t exactly thrive in that role, finishing with just 31 yards on 10 carries.
If they can’t get more production out of their ground game moving forward, I’m not sure if Jimmy Garoppolo can pick up the slack with his arm.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5.5) @ New England Patriots
The Pick: Buccaneers -5.5
This spread is up to Buccaneers -7.0 on DraftKings Sportsbook, so we’re getting a bit of spread value with the Bucs in this pool.
More importantly, I just don’t think the Patriots are very good. Their only win this season came against the Jets, who look like the worst team in the league through three weeks. They’ve lost to the Dolphins and Saints, who stand out as two of the most overvalued teams in football at the moment.
Now, they have to take on a Buccaneers squad that is one of the best in football. Their defense has looked more vulnerable than expected to start the year, but their offense should be able to pick up the slack.
Additionally, Tom Brady is a near-lock when coming off a loss. He’s an insane 41-14 ATS following a regular-season loss since 2004, including a perfect 5-0 as a member of the Buccaneers. Fade him at your own risk.
Here’s who I’m targeting for the rest of the Sunday games. Remember, we’re looking to beat the competition and climb up the leaderboard, so I’ll be looking to gain leverage on the field and fade the public in situations where I don’t see a huge edge on the spread.
Carolina Panthers @ Dallas Cowboys (-4.5)
Pick: Panthers +4.5
Tennessee Titans (-6.5) @ New York Jets
Pick: Jets +6.5
Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles
Pick: Eagles +6.5
Cleveland Browns (-1.5) @ Minnesota Vikings
Pick: Vikings +1.5
Houston Texans @ Buffalo Bills (-16.5)
Pick: Bills -16.5
Washington Football Team (-1.5) @ Atlanta Falcons
Pick: Football Team -1.5
Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams (-5.5)
Pick: Cardinals +5.5
Baltimore Ravens (-1.5) @ Denver Broncos
Pick: Broncos +1.5
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Green Bay Packers (-6.5)
Pick: Packers -6.5
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