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MLB Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Baseball DFS Picks, Predictions, Betting Odds for October 1

Steve Buchanan breaks down Friday’s DraftKings MLB slate with pitching and hitting analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

It’s the FINAL weekend of the regular season and the LAST MLB Cheat Sheet of 2021. I want to thank everyone for continuing to make this piece a success, as I’ve now done this for

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DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes

Biggest Moneyline Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Lance Lynn, $9,500, Chicago White Sox (-280) vs. Detroit Tigers (+225) — The White Sox are looking toward the postseason and they wrap up the regular season against the Tigers. This will be the third time that Lynn has taken on this club and has had big success against them, tossing 12 innings allowing just two runs on eight hits and 15 strikeouts, giving him an average of 26 DKFP. Lynn has been a bit shaky as the year winds down after being nearly untouchable through the first half of the season. To be fair, we’re not talking about bad numbers by any means, as Lynn still has a a 3.57 FIP, a .287 wOBA and a 9.8 K/9 since the All-Star break. Tonight brings one of the most strikeout prone teams in the league against righties, posting a 25.6% K%, which ranks second-highest. Even with some of his recent struggles, Lynn has struck out at least six batters in three of his last five starts, including nine against the Red Sox. The only concern here is that the White Sox could go conservative with their pitching, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he doesn’t go more than five innings in this contest.

Highest Projected Total

Toronto Blue Jays (-300; 6.5 runs) at Baltimore Orioles (+250; 3.5 runs) 10 runs — This is the first time I’ve written up a game that doesn’t even have both starting pitchers listed. Yet, it’s still projected as the highest scoring game on the slate. What we DO know is that Steven Matz ($8,700) is expected to go for the Blue Jays. Normally, this is a spot where I would be looking to target against the lefty, as the Orioles are very good in that split. With that said, Matz has been....good? Through the second-half of the season he’s posted a .294 wOBA, a 3.41 FIP, a 0.67 HR/9 and a 7.6 K/9. Two of the starts did come against the Orioles and he returned mixed results, allowing a total of seven runs on 11 hits through 11 innings. The 3.5 run total is likely a run too low, so I would consider the over for the O’s.

It’s not easy to evaluate the Blue Jays spot when we don’t even know who they’re facing. They have a 6.5 run total, which is insane when you don’t have all the information. The Blue Jays have also been one of the worst teams in the league at hitting the over on the game total, going 66-84-9, which is just 44% to the over. That mark is the third-lowest in the league.

Weather Notes

No concerns tonight!.

Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Adbert Alzolay, .383, 7.04
Tylor Megill, .432, 6.97
Humberto Castellanos, .346, 5.77

Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Ranger Suarez, .156, 1.90
Clayton Kershaw, .187, 1.97
Shane McClanhan, .318, 3.10

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Josh Rogers, .376, 6.76
Marco Gonzales, .348, 5.83
Wandy Peralta, .315, 4.94

Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Adbert Alzolay, .252, 2.72
Sandy Alcantara, .262, 2.72
Lance Lynn, .232, 2.75

Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Ranger Suarez, Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins, $8,800 — This is a really odd slate where it feels like the majority of the pitchers are overpriced. I don’t, however, feel that way about Suarez. The Phillies have officially been eliminated from the NL East and are out of the playoff hunt. They don’t have anything to play for but likely want one last look at Suarez. Since entering the starting rotation, Suarez he’s been lights out. Through 58 2/3 innings, Suarez has a 2.44 FIP, a .246 wOBA, an 8.6 K/9 and just a 0.2 HR/9. He’s made six appearances against the Marlins, five out of the bullpen, and has held them to two runs on six hits and 15 strikeouts through 12 innings. At $8,800 against an offense that has really struggled over the past few weeks, he feels like a bargain.

Stud Hitter to Pay For

Trea Turner, Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers, $5,600 — Turner hasn’t stopped producing for the Dodgers since being traded from the Nationals. Over his last 10 games he’s averaging 13 DKFP with three home runs, three doubles, six RBI, 10 runs scored and two stolen bases. Tonight, he has a great matchup against Eric Lauer ($8,700), who admittedly has been pitching well as of late. However, Turner is one of the most prolific hitters against lefties and currently has a .445 wOBA, a .270 ISO and 186 wRC+ against them.

Save Big by Drafting

Dylan Carlson, St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs, $3,100 — When Adbert Alzolay ($9,800) is on the mound, you want left-handed bats in your lineup. His numbers against righties? Phenomenal. Lefties? Total disaster. Lefties have tagged him with a 7.04 FIP, a .383 wOBA and a 3.2 HR/9. Carlson is coming off a very productive month of September that saw him post a .345 wOBA, a .237 ISO and a 119 wRC+. Hitting from the left side in itself is enough reason to use him but he’s shown some good pop against righties lately, which is the cherry on top.

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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.

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