It’s the first day of the NFL postseason, and what better way to capitalize on the excitement by hitting some more player props? I am backing the legs of two popular quarterbacks on favored teams and fading one of the most exciting receivers in football during the regular season. Here are my favorite prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Josh Allen over 29.5 rushing yards (-112)
This opened down at 26.5 and has already moved up three yards, but I’m still interested in this up to probably 35 yards. Do you remember how Josh Allen played last season? Well, that’s a loaded question, considering he was pretty mediocre, but in terms of his rushing stats, they weren’t special. He never eclipsed 56 yards on the year, though he did hit 30 yards on eight occasions. Then, in his first postseason games, he rushed nine times for over 90 yards. This season, his high rushing total was 57 yards, and he rushed for seven 30-yard games.
My point is that the regular season isn’t a good predictor of how rushing totals for quarterbacks are going to go, because there are more situations that arise in playoff games that call for a quarterback taking the 3-5 yards in front of them instead of trying to make a play downfield; every yard counts in the postseason. I expect Allen to run a bit more than he normally does in this game, particularly when you consider how well the Colts’ secondary covers.
Russell Wilson over 24.5 rushing yards (+100)
Here’s another great example of a quarterback that only uses his legs a handful of times during the regular season, but loves to do so in big games in prime time, and particularly in the postseason. Wilson has eclipsed this total in nine of his 15 playoff games and averages about 31.8 yards per game in the postseason on the ground. He’s going to be doing a lot of escaping when this Rams front four gets to him, and won’t find his receivers open all that often against maybe the best secondary in football.
D.K. Metcalf under 60.5 receiving yards (-112)
Metcalf struggled down the stretch this season, failing to eclipse 80 yards in any single game during the last five for Seattle while averaging about 52.8 yards per game. This becomes a tough pill to swallow when you consider he played some soft secondaries in there, though he did have to face the Rams. In that game, Metcalf caught just six passes for 59 yards, so this line may very well be sharp. I’m still taking the under considering Metcalf has to face Jalen Ramsey, who is coming off his best game of the season according to PFF and has allowed over 47 yards against him in just one game this season. Look for the Rams to put him up against Metcalf on almost every play.
Chase Young over 0.5 sacks (+155)
I’m going to end with a fun one here. Young said he wanted Tom Brady after Washington’s Week 17 win over Philly, and I believe he will get him here. The sensational rookie out of Ohio State has recorded a sack in three of his past four games, and while the Tampa Bay line has been good at protecting Brady this season, it hasn’t seen something like this Washington pass rush. The Buccaneers have allowed Brady to be sacked three times in four different games, and he’s been sacked multiple times in a total of six. It’s important to note the Buccaneers have essentially had five games against legitimately good defenses, so I think they’re in for a rude awakening this week if they think they will walk all over the Football Team. Back Young to get to the quarterback at least once.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jetsfan196) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.