The PGA TOUR is headed to Hawaii to start the new year with the annual trip to the Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort in Maui. The Sentry Tournament of Champions expanded the field a little bit but it still has an elite 42-player field and no cut this weekend.
Each week this season, I’ll take a look at two of the key factors to consider when building DraftKings lineups. We’ll take a look at players who have a good history at the specific course being played (or similar courses if it’s a new venue), and we’ll also take a look at some of the golfers coming in with the best recent results.
Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: PGA TOUR $600K Season Tee Off [$200K to 1st]
Course History
Since this event has been held at the same course for the past 20-plus seasons, we have lots of course history to consider. The course was renovated before last year’s event, but here are some notable results from the past five years.
Course History
| Player Name | Salary | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player Name | Salary | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 |
| Dustin Johnson | $11,000 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| Justin Thomas | $10,700 | 21 | 1 | 22 | 3 | 1 |
| Jon Rahm | $10,400 | -- | -- | 2 | 8 | 10 |
| Xander Schauffele | $10,000 | -- | -- | 22 | 1 | 2 |
| Patrick Reed | $9,600 | 2 | 6 | -- | 25 | 2 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | $9,000 | -- | 2 | 4 | -- | -- |
| Kevin Kisner | $7,800 | 9 | -- | 17 | -- | 14 |
| Marc Leishman | $7,400 | -- | -- | 7 | 4 | -- |
Dustin Johnson ($11,000) and Justin Thomas ($10,700) have each won this event twice in their careers and have combined to take two of the past three titles. Xander Schauffele ($10,000) won two years ago and almost successfully defended his title last season before losing to Thomas in a playoff. Patrick Reed ($9,600) was also in that playoff, and he won this even back in 2015, in addition to the three top-10 finishes represented above. With its rolling hills and larger-than-average greens, there seems to some limited correlation to success at this course and success at Augusta National, where those same players have also had success in their careers.
Since the field had to be slightly expanded due to so many COVID-19 cancellations, the top 30 from last season’s FedExCup standings were added, which means Hideki Matsuyama ($9,000) will be able to tee it up again in Hawaii even though he hasn’t won since 2017. He finished in the top five in each of his three previous trips to Kapalua, and he has the kind of game that seems to fit the course.
Looking further down the salary list for more affordable plays with strong course history, Marc Leishman ($7,400) stands out with a pair of top-10 finishes in his two most recent visits to the event and Martin Laird ($6,400) had a pair of top-10 finishes in 2010 and 2012, although he had not won on the PGA TOUR since 2013 before claiming victory at this year’s Shriners Hospitals for Children Open, so he hasn’t played this event in a long time.
Knowledge of the course is an especially important factor this week since a first-time participant hasn’t won this event in the past nine seasons. The wide fairways and large greens typically lead to high percentages of fairways hit and greens in regulation, but the difference between a quiet week and contending is usually how close players are able to hit their approach shots. If players are dialed in with their irons, they can typically go very low at this venue, and that should be the case again this week as long as the wind stays down as expected.
Current Form
Since many of these elite players sat out some of the Fall events and none have played since before the holidays, we have to dig a little further back than we typically will for this current form section this week. We’ll go back to the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open, which was held early in October.
Current Form
| Player Name | Salary | Shriners | CJ Cup | Zozo | Houston Open | The Masters | RSM Classic | Mayakoba |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player Name | Salary | Shriners | CJ Cup | Zozo | Houston Open | The Masters | RSM Classic | Mayakoba |
| Justin Thomas | $10,700 | -- | 12 | 2 | -- | 4 | -- | 12 |
| Jon Rahm | $10,400 | -- | 17 | 2 | -- | 7 | -- | -- |
| Viktor Hovland | $9,200 | -- | 12 | 47 | 15 | -- | -- | 1 |
| Harris English | $8,700 | CUT | 10 | 28 | -- | -- | 6 | 5 |
| Cameron Smith | $8,400 | 24 | 11 | 4 | -- | 2 | -- | -- |
| Carlos Ortiz | $7,100 | CUT | 48 | 35 | 1 | -- | -- | 8 |
While experience on the course has been key, it’s also worth noting that the past five winners all claimed a PGA TOUR win in the FedExCup Playoffs or the Fall Series in the year right before their win at this tournament. Even though Justin Thomas would actually break that trend if he wins this year, he still comes in hot with strong finishes throughout the last few months even though he hasn’t won since August. It has also been a while since Patrick Reed won back in February although he has been around the top of the leaderboard quite often lately as well.
The most recent winner of a standard PGA TOUR event is Viktor Hovland ($9,200), who claimed his second victory of 2020 with a win at Mayakoba just before the holiday break. He’ll be playing this event for the first time but has the iron game to contend if his putting doesn’t let him down. He can definitely go low as he showed with his 20-under score to claim that victory, and he now has four top-15 finishes in his five most recent starts dating back to the U.S. Open.
While he didn’t get the win at Mayakoba, Harris English ($8,700) finished the week scoring 63 to surge to his second straight top-10. He had a similar finish to The RSM Classic a few weeks earlier with a 62 on Sunday to finish tied for sixth. English is in the top 25 on the PGA TOUR this season in both scoring average and Shots Gained: Total, so he’s a nice sleeper to watch for a high finish even though he hasn’t won an event since 2014.
If you’re looking for a cheaper play with nice form, check out Carlos Ortiz ($7,100), who claimed his first career win at the Vivant Houston Open just before The Masters in November, and then chased that with a top-10 finish at Mayakoba, despite the added pressure of playing in Mexico, his home nation. He is set up for a good season, starting at a career-best No. 63 in the Official World Golf Rankings.
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