It’s Championship Sunday, which means the slate is absolutely loaded with different bets to take on the two games. There are four incredible quarterbacks suiting up this weekend, but I believe there’s value in fading one of them and backing the legs of another. Here are my favorite prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Aaron Rodgers under 279.5 passing yards (-124)
This is a classic example of the books overvaluing a great quarterback based on his most recent game, or I suppose another way you could look at this is that the public is overvaluing him, driving up the line. Either way, there’s value on the under here. Not only did Rodgers average just 268.7 yards per game this season — and 266.2 in the playoffs — but he also had a miserable time against Tampa Bay earlier this year. In that game, Rodgers threw two of his five picks on the season, completed a season-low 45.71% of passes, was sacked four times and threw for just 160 yards. Surely this go around, at home, Rodgers won’t have quite as miserable of a time, but I don’t expect him to go off like he did last week. Sure, the Rams have a good secondary, but their inability to defend the run opened up a few deep passes for Rodgers which helped him flirt with 300 yards. Tampa Bay is No. 1 against the run and No. 8 in yards per pass. It won’t be so easy for Rodgers, and I also love him to throw an interception at the juicy odds of +175.
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Rob Gronkowski over 2.5 receptions (-125)
I’m going to go back to the well here and back Gronk to make an impact for the Buccaneers. He had a red-zone target in Tampa Bay’s win over Washington and five whole targets last week, though he hauled in just one. He proved last week that he is still very much involved in this gameplan, and his longtime teammate Tom Brady surely won’t just stop believing in Gronk in the team’s biggest game of the year. Green Bay’s Jaire Alexander ranks as the top corner in the league according to PFF, so I think Brady will look to spread the ball around to his other receivers. His big tight end should be a beneficiary. As the team leader in red-zone targets, I’m also looking at Gronkowski to score a touchdown at +220.
Josh Allen over 33.5 rushing yards (-110)
Let’s see ... biggest game of the season, biggest game of his career, facing a defense with the ninth-highest blitz percentage in football ... Allen should be running a lot in this one. Given all the above factors, also consider how uncomfortable Allen looked throwing the football last week and how he completed just one of six passes of 20-plus yards according to NFL’s NextGen Stats. I’m not exactly sure if we’re going to get the super-confident Allen in this one who fixed all of his problems from 2019, or the guy we saw for two years who can’t find his receivers deep, but I think given last week it’s safe to assume he’ll opt to use his legs a little bit more, seeing as the Bills gained just 220 yards and need to make a change. He’s averaged 49.7 rushing yards per game in his three playoff appearances, highlighting how much he likes to run when the stakes are high.
Travis Kelce to score a touchdown (-125)
It’s no secret that Kelce is the most involved receiver in the Chiefs’ offense, receiving double-digit targets in nine games this season, as well as in last week’s win. He’s also gone only five games this season without catching a touchdown, and it should be no surprise that he ranked eighth in football with 22 red-zone targets this season. These props are usually a little bit of a crapshoot, but considering that Kelce’s scored far more times than he hasn’t this year, and thinking about the fact that he’s had a touchdown grab in five of his past seven postseason games — one of which was a three-touchdown game — I actually think the price here is a relative bargain.
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