Four teams remain in the NFL playoffs and Sunday begins with the Buccaneers-Packers at 3:05 p.m. ET. Let’s chat about this game, shall we?
Follow me on Twitter, NOW: @SBuchanan24.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $500K Showdown Special [$100K to 1st]
Notable Injuries
Tampa Bay Buccaneers : WR Antonio Brown (out)
Green Bay Packers: None
Unreasonable Odds Podcast Boost: Travis Kelce to record 100-plus receiving yards and score a touchdown, boosted to +225! Check out the DraftKings Sportsbook Odds Boost Specials page for more details!
SHOWDOWN STRATEGY
Captain’s Picks
Aaron Rodgers ($16,800 CP) — Against a poor secondary and a tough run defense, Rodgers is my go-to pick for the captain’s spot. Many will turn to the blowout they endured in Week 6, but I love how the Pack has looked since. Just last week against an extremely tough Rams secondary, Rodgers carved them up for 296 yards, two touchdowns and completed 23 of his 36 pass attempts. This Bucs secondary has completely fallen apart in the second half of the season and I can’t see them containing this offense. With how good the Bucs are against the run, this opens up a great pass-funnel spot for Rodgers, who has a league-leading 70.3% completion rate.
Ronald Jones II ($8,100 CP) — If you want to go cheap at captain to jam in some of the high-priced options, Jones is the play for me. The Packers are the polar opposite of the Bucs when it comes to defending against the run. Jones had quite the success against them in Week 6, going 23/113/2 for 29.1 DKFP, his highest fantasy output of the season. After practicing in full on Friday, he should be in line to take over as the lead back from Leonard Fournette ($12,600 CP). Even with Fournette active, Jones averages 26% of the team’s total touches, so it’s not as if the volume won’t be there. Jones has been quietly efficient in this role as well, averaging 3.65 yards per attempt after contact, which ranked eighth in the league.
Other to consider: Davante Adams ($17,400 CP)
Value Plays
Scotty Miller ($1,800) — With Brown out of this game, we’ll likely see more Miller and potentially Tyler Johnson ($800). I like taking Miller as he seemingly was the direct casualty once Brown was active. Miller went from averaging playing on 65% of the snaps to 23%. Believe it or not, Miller was second on the team in deep pass attempt with 18. Only Mike Evans ($9,000) had more with 23. With this in mind, the upside with Miller here is great, especially at such a low salary. While his floor is shaky, as Tom Brady ($10,600) could easily focus on his main weapons, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Miller convert on at least one deep shot. On those 18 targets, Miller caught six of the seven catchable attempts for 226 yards and a touchdown.
Ryan Succop ($3,600) — Everyone hates playing kickers but the “value” on this slate is pretty scarce. If I’m taking a kicker, Succop is my choice and it’s not close. The Packers ended the regular season averaging only 1.1 field goal attempts per game. That was the lowest in the league! Tampa was at 2.1, which doesn’t sound like a significant jump but with the leader being the Cowboys at 2.6, it was much greater. Succop has been a pivotal piece to the Buccaneers’ playoff run and has made all seven of his attempts with 12 and 13 DKFP.
Rob Gronkowski ($4,400) — Gronk is a perfect cheap piece we can use in hopes of finding the end zone. The loss of Brown will condense the targets down and Gronk was already a big red-zone threat, to begin with. Gronk ended the regular season second on the team in red-zone target share at 19.5% and that's even with three games of not seeing any. The Packers aren’t necessarily a team you target against with tight ends but this is one of the cheapest salaries we’ve seen for him.
Fades
Leonard Fournette ($8,400) — The matchup is great for Fournette when he’s on the field but I’m simply not sure how much he will be. With Jones coming into this game off the injury report, he should be at or near his full workload in a very favorable spot. That would regulate Fournette to the RB2 role, although he may still see some targets. Even still, his salary is way too high for me to want him in my lineup. His salary is sandwiched in between the WR1 and WR2 on the Bucs with Evans and Godwin. For the amount of volume they’re projected to see, paying up for Fournette doesn’t make sense.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $500K Showdown Special [$100K to 1st]
Place your NFL bets at DraftKings Sportsbook and bet online by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.
Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game.
For sports betting, head over to DraftKings Sportsbook or download the DraftKings Sportsbook app.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL).Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA/MI), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (NH/CO), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-888-532-3500 (VA) or call/text TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN).21+ (18+ NH). CO/IL/IN/IA/NH/NJ/PA/TN/VA/WV/MI only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions.