We’ve got a packed weekend with fantastic football for Divisional Round weekend. From a Brady-Brees matchup to four fantastic quarterbacks in the AFC doing battle, there are umpteen fun ways to bet these games. Here are my favorite prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Yes, I’m going to be brave here and take an under on perhaps the best receiver in football, but it’s warranted given the matchup. Jalen Ramsey has only allowed over 50 yards against him one time, according to PFF, and that was back in Week 1 against the Cowboys, where he allowed eight catches on nine targets. Since then, he’s allowed 24 catches on five targets for just 228 yards. Now, of course, it’s very likely that Ramsey isn’t on Adams all game long, but I think he should be on him almost all game, which would make 76 yards unlikely in this spot, despite how good Adams is. Hold your breath and just take this one.
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You may want to wait for this one to move up to 75.5 to get a better price, but the fact remains that Lamar will go off in this one with his legs. The Ravens have the league’s top-ranked rushing offense by a mile, and Buffalo ranks 20th against the run. Jackson has averaged over 139 yards on the ground in his last two playoff games (he’s only played in three), but more importantly than that, he rushed the ball 36 times combined in those two games. Jackson will surely carry the ball a bunch, having averaged over 12 carries per game over the last nine games of the year, so I think this is a pretty safe bet. If he runs it 12-plus times, I’d find it hard to believe he can’t break this mark against the worst rushing defense in the league.
Evans appeared to be hobbled in last week’s win over Washington, yet he still hauled in six passes for 119 yards. He is Tom Brady’s clear top target, getting the most red-zone targets on the team. Evans will match up with Marshon Lattimore here, who is getting too much respect here from the books, having declined steadily since he burst onto the scene in his first couple of seasons. He’s had some bad games this season, allowing 95-plus yards three different times according to PFF, and certainly isn’t good enough to shy away from in this spot. Brady will no doubt continue targeting Evans despite the matchup, and if the targets are going to be there you can trust Evans will push toward 75 yards.
This is another situation where you likely want to wait for this one to jump to 17.5 to get a better price (I’m not sure why it hasn’t, frankly), but this should soar over. Mahomes doesn’t run a lot, sure, but in the postseason he has. He’s averaging nearly six rushing attempts in the postseason and didn’t go under this total once in his three games last season. The playoffs usually lead quarterbacks who can run to run more, because every single yard matters, so they’ll take the five yards in front of them instead of taking a risk. Mahomes is especially likely to run on third downs, where Cleveland has been very bad this season. I also like him to score a touchdown (+260), because he’s rushed for a score in three of five career postseason games.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jetsfan196) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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