The NBA is the Wild West right now given COVID and the protocols, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t edges to be had. We went 2-1 on our plays on Monday, with both player props coming through, improving to 17-11 in the article plays this season. Let’s dive into Wednesday’s card.
Follow along on Twitter — @julianedlow — for what we hope to be another great season, as some plays jump out late due to news, particularly in the player prop market. Here’s what jumps out to me on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Milwaukee Bucks at Detroit Pistons: *If Derrick Rose is OUT
Editor’s Note: Pistons PG Derrick Rose (knee) has been ruled out tonight vs. the Bucks.
Rose missed Detroit’s last game, and was downgraded from probable to questionable on Wednesday, which is never a good sign. If he sits, Wright is the main prop to target. Against Phoenix — when Rose suffered the injury and only played 19 minutes — we saw Wright’s minutes go up to 34, and he dropped 16 points. While he only scored six points against the Jazz over the weekend in the game Rose missed, he shot just 2-of-9 from the field. An average shooting night with the extra minutes gets him there. He still played 36 minutes in the poor shooting game.
Grant you can probably lock in regardless of Rose’s status, but it certainly gets a boost if the scoring-minded PG is out. Simply put, Grant’s props have been an ATM ever since a dud in his first game of the season. His point prop has cashed all nine games since, including games of 24 and 31 points against the Bucks.
Dallas is the most thin roster on this slate due to COVID protocols, leaving the healthy bodies to play more. THJ has been running hot lately, with a pair of 30-point games over his last three outings, and this number is set right on his season average. But we know he’ll have a larger role in this game, with five rotation players missing, including two starting wings. Most of those guys missed the Mavs’ last game on Saturday, which Hardaway scored 36 points, attempted 20 shots and played 40 minutes — all season-highs. If we’re being offered THJ’s average in a game we know there will be more volume, we have to take it. Only a poor shooting night against the Hornets can hold us back.
While I prefer the first props to take advantage of lineup news, CJ is also worth a look here against the Kings. The market hasn’t totally caught up to his hot start, as he’s averaging 28.1 points per game. The Kings are a bottom-five scoring defense in the NBA, so it makes sense to lean to an above-average night here. McCollum’s gone over this number in six of 10 games, going for 30-plus in each of his last two — that includes 37 in just 29 minutes against the Kings. With Damian Lillard a little banged up with a knee, maybe the Blazers lean on CJ a bit more in a plus-matchup.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jedlow) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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