We get a four-game main slate on DraftKings for the Divisional Round, headlined by the Divisional Millionaire tournament. Here’s what jumps out in my first look at the four-game main slate on DraftKings.
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cleveland Browns ($8,000) — Mahomes hasn’t really gone off since scoring 35 DKFP against the Bucs back in Week 12. While he had a down season by his standards, this still sets up as a terrific spot. Mahomes has now had two weeks off, and will face a Cleveland defense that ranks 22nd in DKFP allowed to QBs. While the game script required Ben Roethlisberger to air it out, we did just see him put up career numbers against this defense. With Lamar Jackson likely playing in his first snow game, Mahomes could be the safer call.
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills ($7,600) — If Jackson can brave the elements in Buffalo, there’s a ton of upside here. Maybe we see Lamar run even more in the snow, which would be ideal for his fantasy value. What we do know is that Jackson runs in those got-to-have-it situations, which are much more common in a big playoff game. He had his third 100-yard game of the season in the Wild Card round, going for 16-136-1 on the ground. Buffalo ranks 26th in DKFP allowed to QBs.
Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs ($5,300) — The Browns probably aren’t jumping out to a 28-0 lead in this one, but as double-digit dogs, the game script does set up well for Mayfield. Because everybody plays from behind against the Chiefs, the defense ranked just 30th in DKFP allowed to QBs this season. This is the highest total on the board this weekend, and we just need the Browns to do their part and put some points on the board.
Other Options: Drew Brees ($5,600)
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Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($7,900) — Kamara’s the most expensive RB on the board, and while the Bucs allowed the second-fewest DKFP to the position, Kamara is generally the exception. He averaged about 20 DKFP against Tampa in two regular season games, thanks to three scores in those meetings — but he hardly had to play the second time in a blowout. He’s had 25 touches in each of his last two games, so the Saints shouldn’t be shy to lean on Kamara. Latavius Murray left last week with a thigh injury, potentially leaving Kamara more work.
Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs ($6,600) — If we buy into the Browns playing from behind in this one, there’s not the safest floor with Chubb in the worst case scenario. But I think most game scripts actually play out fine for him — Chubb’s put up decent rushing numbers against some stronger defenses, and his 13 touchdowns leave obvious upside in the red zone, even if trailing. We also saw Chubb haul in all four of his targets for 69 yards and a touchdown against Pittsburgh. He should find a way to get his, even if the Browns lose this one by double digits.
Devin Singletary, Buffalo Bills vs. Baltimore Ravens ($4,500) — This is a more obvious spot, with Zack Moss (ankle) ruled out for the postseason. Moss had 11 touches in the Wild Card game against the Colts, and if you remove the Week 17 game for the Bills, the rookie ended the regular season with three straight games of 12-plus carries. With Moss out, we’d expect Singletary to see almost all that work. Moss missed time and played banged up some at the start of the regular season, and Singletary had a stretch of five straight games with 10-plus carries. We should be looking at 15 or so touches here.
Other Options: Cam Akers ($5,700), Leonard Fournette ($4,900 — if Ronald Jones is out), Kareem Hunt ($4,800)
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Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers vs. Los Angeles Rams ($8,600) — This is a really interesting spot on this slate. What do we do with Adams? The man has been automatic this season — 27.2 DKFP per game, and 18 touchdowns in 14 games. Now he faces an elite Rams secondary that allowed the fewest DKFP to WR, and he’ll be personally matched up with Jalen Ramsey, who just limited D.K. Metcalf for the third time this season — he basically shut Metcalf down for the season outside of the deep touchdown last week. Other strong defenses like the Bears held Adams under 20 DKFP in both matchups this season. It hurts, but with only so much salary and better matchups, we might be fading Adams this week.
Tyreek Hill, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cleveland Browns ($8,000) — One of those pivot spots would be Hill, who’s now had plenty of time to rest that hamstring. Hill wasn’t quite what Adams was in the regular season, but gave us 17 touchdowns in 15 games, and has that video game 60-DKFP upside playing with Mahomes. The Browns allowed the fourth-most DKFP to WRs this season.
Marquise Brown, Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills ($5,200) — Hollywood Brown was our cheap option listed last week, and he hit against the Titans — 7-109-0 with two carries for 19 yards (22.8 DKFP). It was Brown’s second straight game with 20-plus DKFP, and he scored 10-plus in seven straight now. He finished the regular season with six touchdowns in his last six games, really turning his year around. The Bills can be much tougher on WR than the Titans. The Ravens likely want to run the ball to win this game, especially with the weather, but it could only take one big play here. There are some good cheap options this week if you need to pay down for multiple WR.
Other Options: Antonio Brown ($5,400), Gabriel Davis ($4,000), Deonte Harris ($3,500)
Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cleveland Browns ($7,800) — After a TE slate with very limited options, we get an elite option back in the player pool. The Browns rank 30th in DKFP allowed to TEs this season, and Kelce’s game log is just machine-like — his 1,416 yards were a TE record. This is just a matter of if you can fit Kelce in your lineup. You’ll need to suck it up with rostering a cheap play over guys like Hill or Kamara to make it work, but it’s a viable build.
Austin Hooper, Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs ($3,800) — While TE was thin last week, the chalk did hit — Eric Ebron put up big numbers against the Browns, the matchup Kelce gets. But Hooper saw a huge role for the Browns, finishing with 7-46-1 (17.6 DKFP) on 11 targets. That’s four games in a row with at least 13 DKFP for Hoop, and the Chiefs allowed the second-most DKFP to TE this season. Certainly worth considering the value here at half the price of Kelce.
Other Options: Dawson Knox ($3,100)
Green Bay Packers ($3,900) vs. Los Angeles Rams — If there’s a defensive game on the slate, pending the weather in Buffalo, it looks like this would be it. Both of the Rams’ QBs are injured, and the offense has really stalled in games. I don’t think putting up another 30 points is in the cards, and the Packers’ DST was much better at home this season, averaging 7.6 DKFP.
Los Angeles Rams ($2,600) at Green Bay Packers — Going against the Packers at home is tough, but this is clearly the best defense going. If you rostered them against Russell Wilson and the Seahawks, you got 16 DKFP last weekend. Averaging 9.8 DKFP, this is simply taking the best defense at a big discount due to matchup.
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