Regression hit on Friday, with the article plays going 0-3. Hopefully, you tailed on Twitter, where some player props developed throughout the day and went 4-1. The article record for the season drops to 13-9, but it’s still in the green. Monday’s betting card already lost a game to COVID protocols, so we’re down to seven games to dig through for value.
Follow along on Twitter — @julianedlow — for what we hope to be another great season, as some plays jump out late due to news, particularly in the player prop market. Here’s what jumps out to me on DraftKings Sportsbook.
I rolled out the first-quarter bets last week and we went 0-2. After two weeks of data, it wasn’t necessarily too early, but the more data we have the better. I’ve been waiting for more of a lopsided matchup, and this one should give it to us. The Suns have been rolling in the first half of games this season, going 8-2 1H ATS — their plus-4.8 margin ranks fourth in the NBA. Going on the road hasn’t been an issue, in fact, the trend gets even stronger. Phoenix is 5-1 1H ATS on the road, outscoring opponents by over 5.7 points in first halves away from home. Only the Timberwolves have gotten off to worse starts at home than the Wizards, with Washington 1-4 1H ATS at home this season. The Wiz will be without a pair of starters in Russell Westbrook and Thomas Bryant and expect the trickledown to take its toll. Look for the Suns to get out to a quick start.
I was initially ready to write up Cam Reddish O13.5 points here, and while I think you can lock both bets in, I lean toward Hunter as the stronger play. Not only is Danilo Gallinari still out, but Bogdan Bogdanovic is now sidelined as well — removing about 10 points and 24 minutes from the rotation. On top of that, Trae Young has been having a dreadful shooting stretch, opening up other scoring opportunities. Reddish dropped 21 points on Saturday but has been the more inconsistent player. Hunter started the season slower, scoring exactly 11 points in three of his first four games, but the rotation was deeper then. Hunter’s scored at least 15 points in all six of his other games, including 17-plus in each of his past five. Hunter’s averaging 20 points over that five-game span, shooting over 55% from the field and playing 33.2 minutes per game. He should get good looks against a very thin Philly squad that is dealing with a COVID outbreak.
The Kings play at a fast pace and have the third-worst scoring defense in the NBA, allowing 121 per game. On top of that, this is one of the worst frontcourts when it comes to bigs, and starting center Richaun Holmes will be a game-time decision. There should be plenty of work for Sabonis in this game around the rim, both as a scorer and rebounder. This dude is coming off a monster 28-point, 22-rebound double-double against the Suns on Saturday, and that’s a team that does play defense. This should be an above-average game for Sabonis in scoring and rebounding, but averaging 6.1 assists and with a triple-double under his belt this season, he also has the potential to contribute as a passer.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jedlow) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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