Happy Tuesday! We’ve got a massive 18-game MLB slate, including three double-headers, so there are plenty of bets to sort through. I’ve picked out three of my favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Sign up for the DraftKings Pro Football Pick’Em National Championship and compete to win a grand prize of at least $1 million! Head here to the DraftKings Pro Football Pick’Em National Championship page for all the details!
Minnesota Twins vs. St. Louis Cardinals
This pitching matchup is a hard one to grade because Carlos Martinez has only made one start this season due to injury. However, we have such a large body of work to use that we don’t need to focus on his one disastrous outing against these same Twins back on July 28.
We know Martinez has done a tremendous job over his career at inducing soft contact, and he’s maintained a steady strikeout-to-walk ratio. We also know that Jose Berrios has really struggled with his control this season, seeing his walk rate balloon to a troubling 11% and his barrel rate increase significantly from where it’s been for the last three seasons. He is getting plenty of swings and misses, but he’s also allowing baserunners and hard contact at around the same rate.
I’m not buying the Berrios turnaround over his past two starts the same way I’m not expecting Martinez to again allow six runs in 3.2 innings. We know who both pitchers are, and I’m betting on Berrios struggling to handle a Cardinals offense ranking 11th in wRC+ over the past week. Another deciding factor for me here is the Cardinals’ bullpen, which has been the best in baseball over the past week with a 1.78 ERA. They may be called into action early with Martinez still being eased back into form. I also like the over here in what could be a tight game, but the Cardinals should win.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees
It just seems impossible that the Yankees, a team that possesses talent even with so many big names out, will lose again with things slipping away. New York’s offense finally woke up last night, which was a great sign for investors in this team, but its bullpen blew it in the sixth. I’m a believer in regression to the mean, and we know this bullpen is above average. I project that runs should be easy to come by for the Yankees against the always volatile Taijuan Walker, it’ll just be up to J.A. Happ and the bullpen to limit the damage. Chad Green and Adam Ottavino likely won’t pitch tonight, which are the two weak links at the moment, so that should bode well for their chances of getting outs. Back the Yankees’ offense to pick up where they left off Monday and score some runs, and believe in the bullpen.
Los Angeles Angels vs. Texas Rangers:
I love me some Lance Lynn, but it’s hard for me to back him and Texas in this spot. Lynn and his opponent tonight, Andrew Heaney, have been trending in opposite directions. Heaney is coming off his two best and longest starts of the season against quality offenses, while Lynn has seen his ERA creep up in each of his last three outings, most recently in a disastrous performance against Houston.
The Angels have been making plenty of hard contact over the past couple of weeks, and for the year they hold the eighth-best average versus righties. The Rangers, meanwhile, have been dead last in wRC+ over the past two weeks (61) and have the eighth-worst average versus lefties for the year. We’ve got two pitchers trending in opposite directions, and two offenses going the wrong way, with good splits to boot. It just so happens these all line up perfectly. I’ll be going with the Angels as short favorites.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game.
Curious about when major leagues and events will return? Check out our DraftKings Sports Calendar for the latest updates.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL). Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (NH/CO) or 1-800-BETS OFF (IA). 21+ (18+ NH). NJ/PA/WV/IN/NH/IA/CO/IL only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jetsfan196) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.