We’re on to the quarterfinals at the US Open, and there’s excitement throughout the grounds. Three of the four matchups in the women’s draw involve Americans, and on the men’s side we’ll see a first-time Grand Slam champ, something rare in the era of the Big Three. Tuesday should be a tremendous day of tennis, and I’ve picked out the three bets I see the most value in on DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Pablo Carreno Busta vs. Denis Shapovalov
I’m listing both as recommended bets, because this is all about your comfort level and how much juice you are willing to lay. I do believe Shapovalov wins easily, so both should hit, but it’s a matter of whether you’d rather pay for the safer option or take the more bettable line.
Shapo has awoken at the US Open, winning with ease against a tough out in David Goffin. The relentless Belgian had him on his back foot throughout, even making him look out of rhythm at times, but the young Canadian responded with a flurry of power winners. It was proof that he has returned to the level we saw him at towards the end of 2019, where he could have beaten anyone not named Novak, Roger or Rafa, regardless of whether or not it would be a good matchup for him.
The good news for Shapovalov is he’s got Pablo Carreno Busta waiting for him in the semifinals, a player that is strikingly similar to David Goffin in his play style. PCB will make you earn your points, but won’t blow you away with a boatload of power. I believe Shapovalov will be able to take command of rallies the way he did against Goffin and prevail in three or four sets. Shapo has also found his serve, hitting first serves in at a 66% and 68% clip over his last two matches, a huge key for him.
Naomi Osaka vs. Shelby Rogers
Speaking of power, Osaka was able to hit through one of the more talented players on tour in Anett Kontaveit, looking simply impossible to handle with the pace on her groundstrokes. Shelby Rogers, on the other side of the net, really should not be here, surviving last round thanks to Petra Kvitova’s unforced errors up match point.
Aside from fumbling away chances to win the match, Kvitova’s lack of movement and lack of aggression were huge factor in this match. Osaka, 22, is a much better mover and was uber-aggressive throughout her matchup with Kontaveit. Kvitova simply refused to go for winners, daring Rogers to go for winners, and Rogers was well up to the task. Osaka won’t give Rogers the same inches, and will be able to finish points with her speed. I think the combination of dominating power and court coverage will be something Rogers hasn’t seen yet, and Naomi should roll.
Borna Coric vs. Alexander Zverev
I sung Coric’s praises before his match with Jordan Thompson, giving him a ton of credit for taking it to Stefanos Tsitsipas in the fifth set of his third-round epic. He’s a talented player who’s never been able to put it all together. He’s also someone who relies a lot on shot and serve placement, lacking any sort of weapon on the court.
Here’s the thing: Alex Zverev has weapons. Although his mental strength goes through lapses, he is one of the most talented players in the next generation, boasting a huge serve and powerful backhand. He is also coming off a performance which saw him dominate in around an hour and a half, hitting 69% of his first serves in and only double-faulting (his biggest Achilles heel) twice. He has been serving his butt off in New York, and it’s going to take an elite return game to take him down. Coric doesn’t have that, might put up a fight early, but I expect fatigue to catch up with him as he grinds and grinds to win points off the Zverev serve. There’s no way I’m laying -265, so I’ll take the game spread, which is pretty short for a best-of-five match and should be easy to cover.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jetsfan196) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.