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Monday features a six-game slate with lineups locking a bit earlier than usual at 6:05 p.m. ET. Don’t be fooled by the size of the slate, as we have some really, really good pitching options to choose from, makings this a potential tough slate for hitters.
As always, feel free to follow me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
Set your DraftKings lineups here: MLB $175K Relay Throw [$50K to 1st]
Game Notes
Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Zach Plesac, $7,600, CLE (-225) vs. KCR (+180) — This will be the fifth start of the season for Plesac and his second against the Royals. In that previous start, he tossed six innings allowing just one run on four hits with six strikeouts, good for 25.1 DKFP. Plesac has been as good as advertised, sporting an overall 2.59 FIP, a 30.3% K% and a microscopic 2.0% BB%. The Royals have become a team to pick on with righties, as evidenced by their .296 wOBA, .156 ISO and 24.6% K%. This is setting up to be a great spot for Plesac, especially given how cheap he is. With that in mind, prepare for some heavy ownership on him, as he’s a great SP2 to pair with Max Scherzer ($10,400) or Zac Gallen ($9,200).
Other notable favorites: Dinelson Lamet ($8,800; -200) vs. Rockies, Frankie Montas ($8,000; -152) vs. Astros
Highest Projected Total
NYY (+115, 3.5 runs) vs. TOR (-139, 4.5 runs) 9 runs — This slate doesn’t offer many huge totals but we have some situations to take advantage of, like the Blue Jays against Jordan Montgomery ($6,400). The Blue Jays have been a good hitting club against lefties with a .331 wOBA, a .182 ISO and a 110 wRC+. As for Montgomery, he hasn’t been particularly bad with a 4.71 FIP and only a 32.5% hard-hit rate; he’s simply throwing a lot of pitches and not going deep into games. A short outing is not what the Yankees need right now, as their bullpen has been getting some heavy use as of late and has a 6.29 FIP, a 2.08 HR/9 and a 4.1 BB/9 over the past seven games. This is a long way of saying, the Blue Jays are in a great spot tonight and taking the over on their team total sounds cool too.
Other notable team totals: CLE (4.5) vs. KCR, SDP (4.5) vs. COL
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Weather Concerns
NYY @ TOR (Buffalo) — Rain should be cleared by the time first pitch rolls around, but they could see a disturbance later in the evening. Keep an eye on this one.
Splits to Start
Note: This section will now show the combined stats from 2019 and 2020
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Kyle Freeland, .340, 4.24
Max Scherzer, .332, 3.61
Kevin Gausman, .328, 4.12
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Hyun-Jin Ryu, .218, 3.37
Zac Gallen, .267, 3.61
Zach Plesac, .277, 4.26
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Kyle Freeland, .371, 5.88
Kevin Gausman, .326, 3.74
Zach Plesac, .308, 4.69
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Max Scherzer, .231, 1.82
Frankie Montas, .274, 3.68
Hyun-Jin Ryu, .277 2.92
Lineup Starters
Pitcher to Build Around
Zac Gallen, ARI at SF, $9,200 — It’s hard not to like Gallen when he takes the mound. He’s not being talked about enough and it’s insane to me. Through eight starts, he sports a 3.57 FIP, a 27.8 K% and a 7.7 BB%. This is the third time he’ll be facing the Giants, after throwing a combined 13 innings allowing just two runs on eight hits and 11 strikeouts, good for an average of 21.4 DKFP. I even like using him over Max Scherzer ($10,400), who I think could be in for a tough spot against the Rays in Washington.
Heavy Hitter to Pay For
Manny Machado, SDP vs. COL, $5,700 — When the season first began, Kyle Freeland ($7,000) was pitching well, and people were like “Oh, MaYbE fReElAnD Is BaCk.” Spoiler alert: He’s not back. Freeland has gone back to his 2019 ways and has now posted back-to-back games in negative fantasy points, including a game against the Padres. I like using Machado in this spot, as against lefties this season he has a .436 wOBA with a .277 ISO and a 50% hard-hit rate. The Padres overall are in a great spot, so I’d imagine it will be a fairly popular stack to make.
Save Big by Drafting
Ji-Man Choi, TB at WAS, $3,500 — I mentioned earlier that I wasn’t a fan of Scherzer on this slate, so I may as well back that up with giving a play against him. Scherzer has been good, don’t get me wrong, but lefties have been a problem for him, especially in Washington. In that matchup, Scherzer has a .452 wOBA and a 6.15 FIP. Choi won’t have much ownership at all, and his road numbers have been solid against righties with a. .338 wOBA and a .192 ISO. At this salary, more than enough to take a shot with.
Favorite Team To Stack
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees (vs. Jordan Montgomery) — Going off much what I talked about earlier in the article, I think this is a great spot for the Blue Jays on a slate where we don’t have a ton of teams to stack. Even with the loss of Teoscar Hernandez, the Blue Jays still have a number of players that hit lefties well and then, hopefully, they’ll get into that Yankees bullpen early.
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