We’re closing the book on the fourth round of the US Open, and finding out who our four final quarterfinalists will be. With Novak Djokovic out of the draw, there is sure to be a reinvigoration around the grounds with a collection of guys looking for their first Grand Slam title. On the women’s side, we’ve still got fan favorites Sofie Kenin and Serena Williams alive, as well as Tsvetana Pironkova, who has been mowing down everyone in her path. I’ve picked out the four bets I see the most value in on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Matteo Berrettini vs. Andrey Rublev
This is a huge revenge spot for Rublev, who was ousted by Berrettini during the Italian’s breakout US Open last year in this very round. I am not loading up on Rublev here, but I think he is absolutely worth a bet. I continue to warn against reading into Berrettini’s form at this tournament; none of the players he has played are near as talented as Rublev. I read this as a pretty even matchup, and think the value lies in the dog in this match.
We saw what an angry Rublev could do earlier this year, winning two straight tournaments in Doha and Adelaide after being snubbed from Russia’s ATP Cup team. I expect him to come out with the same fire on Monday in what will be an excellent, power-versus-power tennis match. I also like the over in this one, because Berrettini’s big serve won’t be broken too often and his return games leave a lot to be desired. The two have played four tiebreaks in their five meetings, so I think it’s a safe bet we see one here as well, giving more credence to the over.
Alizé Cornet vs. Tsvetana Pironkova
Aside from Viktoria Azarenka, I think Prionkova has been the most impressive player on the women’s side. She’s rolling over tough opponents, and is doing so with no serve to speak of. Her win rate on first and second serves has been equally high, proving how dominant her ground game has been.
This is a great matchup against Cornet, who has made it past the third round in a hardcourt Slam just once in her career, all the way back in 2009. She’s hovered around .500 her past five seasons and has made it this far in New York due to a weak draw and a retirement from Madison Keys in the third round. With no big weapon in this one, I think it will come down to the groundstrokes, a battle I am confident in Prionkova winning. The wrong player is favored here.
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Felix Auger Aliassime vs. Dominic Thiem
If there is one thing I have learned about Felix this season, it is that he absolutely loves playing tiebreaks. He played three in his first round win at the Open, two against Tennys Sandgren the week before and five across two matches in Marseille before the shutdown. He’s hit 47 aces across his three matches, seventh-best in the draw, and he’s winning 83% of his first serves (also seventh). With stellar serving numbers so far, I expect this to come down to a tiebreak or pivotal game late in each set. Because I find it highly unlikely Thiem gets straight-setted here, I’m backing the over, thinking we see four sets and one tiebreak. Doing some math, we’d just need 26 games if one goes to a breaker. I like those odds.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jetsfan196) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.