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MLB Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Baseball DFS Predictions for September 4

Steve Buchanan breaks down Friday’s DraftKings MLB slate with pitching and hitting analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

Did you miss yesterday’s slate? It was quite easy to do so, as I personally forgot about my lineups until THANKFULLY five minutes before the 4:05 p.m. ET lock. Have you ever scrambled to build multiple lineups in five minutes? It’s not great! But enough about me, how you doin’? You living good? You ready for a normal, nine-game slate that locks at 7:10 p.m. ET on DraftKings? Good. Let’s get into it.

As always, feel free to follow me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Set your DraftKings lineups here: MLB $200K Relay Throw [$50K to 1st]

Game Notes

Biggest Moneyline Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Dustin May, $8,700, LAD (-275) vs. COL (+225) — So look, I think May is a fantastic pitcher. I would recommended at least watching some highlights of when he takes the mound, as he truly has some nasty stuff. However, he’s not a fantasy friendly pitcher. He continues to be one of the more expensive pitchers on the slate and he’s just not worth using. I can’t imagine paying $8.7K for a pitcher with a 16.1% strikeout rate through seven starts. For perspective, among all starters who have at least 30 innings, his K% ranks 71st of 82. Randy Dobnak of the Twins is last at 11.9%. So to pay the premium on May just doesn’t seem like the right move. Do I like the Dodgers to win in this game? Absolutely. From a DFS perspective, however, May is not in play for me.

Other notable favorites: Dane Dunning ($5,800; -167) vs. Royals, Carlos Carrasco ($10,200; -153) vs. Brewers

Highest Projected Total

PHI (+112; 4.5 runs) vs. NYM (-129; 5.5 runs) 9.5 runs — Not surprised to see this game with the highest projected total as Jake Arrieta ($6,900) and Rick Porcello ($7,300) are set to take the mound. The Mets are favored, but I’m certainly not going out of my way to back Porcello, who has been rocked in 11 innings at home thus far, allowing a .440 wOBA with 12 runs on 20 hits. Then you have Arrieta, who continuously struggles against lefties and enters this game with a .342 wOBA and a 5.04 FIP. The Mets have a bunch of lefties on the roster, which can make this a difficult spot for Arrieta. This game has a lot of potential to go over the 9.5 run total, making it a game to target.

Other notable team totals: CWS (5.5) vs. KCR, LAD (5.5) vs. COL

Curious about when major leagues and events will return? Check out our DraftKings Sports Calendar for the latest updates.

Weather Concerns

No weather concerns!

Splits to Start

Note: This section will now show the combined stats from 2019 and 2020

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Corbin Burnes, .402, 5.75
Jake Arrieta, .381, 6.19
Antonio Senzatela, .368, 5.55

Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Jack Flaherty, .262, 4.09
Zach Davies, .289, 4.56
Yu Darvish, .304, 4.22

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Tyler Anderson, .366, 5.17
Yusei Kikuchi .365, 5.38
Carlos Carrasco, .350, 3.94

Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Dustin May, .230, 3.16
Jack Flaherty, .240, 2.85
Yu Darvish, .265 3.26

Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Yu Darvish, CHC vs. STL, $11,000 — Yes, he’s the most expensive pitcher on the slate, but I’ll tell you who doesn’t care. Spoiler alert: It’s me. Darvish is in such a great matchup against the Cardinals, who have one of the lowest ISOs against righties in the league at .145. Darvish continues to pitch on a completely different level, limiting damage all across the board and even sports a 90.1% left on base rate when hitters are getting on. With his walks in check (4.7% walk rate), it’s hard not to like the Cubs’ ace.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Michael Conforto, NYM vs. PHI, $4,800 — We have a lot of good hitters going tonight, but I do have my eye on Conforto in that good matchup against Arrieta. Don’t forget, this game has the highest projected total on the slate, so it’s always wise to at least grab one piece. Aside from the struggles for Arrieta against lefties, the Phillies’ bullpen has also had their issues, with a 4.64 FIP, an 11.0% walk rate and a 1.4 HR/9.

Save Big by Drafting

Taylor Naquin, CLE vs. MIL, $3,100 — Naquin has been on quite the run as of late, collecting all four of his home runs this season over his last six games. Aside from that, he’s posted some great numbers against righties in the bottom-half of the Indians’ lineup. In that matchup, he’s boasting a .418 wOBA with a .345 ISO and a 50% hard-hit rate. Some really good numbers to bring against Corbin Burnes ($8,000), who since last season against lefties has a .402 wOBA, a 5.75 FIP and a 2.0 HR/9.

Favorite Team To Stack

Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels (vs. Dylan Bundy) — I’ve talked about how I like the Mets and Phillies, but I’m also looking at the Astros against Bundy. It likely seems odd since he’s pitched so well this season, but consider his schedule. He’s seen the Mariners three times, the A’s twice and the Giants. His strikeout upside has been great, but now he faces an Astros team with one of the lowest K% in the league against righties at 20.2%. With Bundy failing to go deep into games as of late, seeing no more than 5.2 innings over his last three, I’m hoping the Astros get into the Angels bullpen early. They’re allowing a 41.3% hard-hit rate and a 4.82 FIP over the last week.

Set your DraftKings lineups here: MLB $200K Relay Throw [$50K to 1st]

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

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