Welcome to this week’s NFL DFS slate recap for Week 3! There’s always plenty to think about as each NFL slate comes to a close, with a week’s worth of decisions to evaluate and second guess. One of the pivotal considerations for many players when building DFS lineups (particularly GPPs) is ownership percentage, and starting this week, you can find breakdowns of the past Sunday’s ownership numbers and player performances here.
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Comparing Two Contests
For this analysis, we’ll be looking at two of the biggest contests that take place each week on DraftKings: the $333 Wildcat, and the $3 Play-Action. The Millionaire Maker contests are actually larger than these two, but given the nature of the prize pool in those contests, it seems more useful to focus on these instead. These are also two contests that have a large enough difference in entry fees to illustrate the differences in how low-stakes and high-stakes players are playing.
Pictured above are the largest differences in ownership between the two contests, with the 10 biggest gaps in each direction. Miles Sanders and Kenyan Drake got a lot of hype for their matchups in Week 3 (against the Bengals and Lions, respectively) but Devin Singletary actually had the most significant ownership jump from low stakes to high stakes. Singletary struggled through two weeks while sharing carries with rookie running back Zack Moss, but Moss was ruled out late in the week and that allowed Singletary to get an increased share of playing time.
On the opposite side, the most notable drop off from low to high stakes was DK Metcalf, who was played significantly more in the $3 contest than he was in the $333. Metcalf was part of the most prominent game on the slate (Seahawks vs. Cowboys) and ended up making one of the more memorable plays of the week too when he fumbled a would-be touchdown while walking into the end zone. Metcalf later redeemed himself and finished with 23 points, salvaging a good day for the 24% of lineups who played him in the $3 tournament. Part of the reason why Metcalf’s ownership dropped off at higher stakes is apparent from these numbers, as Allen Robinson, Amari Cooper and Adam Thielen (see above) were preferred WR choices in the same price range for the players in the $333 contest.
Several players produced strong fantasy performances at low ownership in Week 3 and pictured above are the top-performing skill-position players who were under 5% owned in the Wildcat. Keenan Allen has been a low-owned commodity each week in 2020, but given his track record, it’s not a major surprise to see the results even with the turmoil the Chargers have had at quarterback this season. The most surprising name on the list comes in right behind him, with Vikings rookie receiver Justin Jefferson having a breakout performance after being held relatively quiet through his first two games in the NFL. Jefferson hauled in 7 of his 9 targets to wind up with 175 yards and a touchdown, with the highlight of his day coming on a 71-yard TD reception.
Under 10, Over 10
For “Under 10, Over 10” you’ll find a complete list of the skill players who were at least 10% owned in the Wildcat but scored less than 10 fantasy points. Kenyan Drake is the most notable name here considering his ownership at over 30%, but the Cardinals had a fairly subpar offensive game against the Lions and Drake was one of the main guys whose fantasy output suffered. Diontae Johnson also produced a significant dud, but in his case, it was due to injury as he exited in the second quarter against the Texans and did not return. Johnson started the season with two strong games but didn’t actually catch a pass in Week 3 with his only points coming from a run for nine yards.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.