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Fantasy Football Picks, Fades: DraftKings NFL DFS Salary Risers and Fallers Ahead of Week 4

Steve Buchanan goes over four DraftKings NFL player salaries and how they either went up or down ahead of Week 4.

While Week 3 in the NFL saw its share of injuries, it was nothing like we experienced back in Week 2. So, after counting our lucky stars, let’s take a look at some players who saw some of the biggest increases in their DraftKings salaries from Week 3 to Week 4 and some who saw some drops.

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EDITOR’S NOTE: Sunday’s Patriots-Chiefs game has been postponed, with the game scheduled to be played Monday night at 7:05 p.m. ET.

Jared Goff ($6,700) vs. New York Giants

Week 3 Salary: $5,600 (+$1,100 increase)

The Rams came oh so close to pulling off an amazing upset against the Bills, storming back to score 29 points in the second half only to lose by three on a fourth quarter touchdown with only seconds remaining (RIP +2.5 Rams backers). Not to be overlooked was Goff’s performance, who against a tough Bills secondary completed 23-of-32 pass attempts for 321 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. In fact, of the four straight scoring drives the Rams had in the second half, they went for 268 of the total 478 yards in this game.

The Rams are in for a great bounce-back spot in Week 4 against the Giants, who are allowing an average of 19.3 DKFP, 254 passing yards and a total of nine touchdowns thrown through the first three weeks. Their pass rush has been almost nonexistent, which is great news for Goff, who has consistently been one of the worst quaterbacks under pressure in the league. Goff has been under pressure on only 27% of his dropbacks and has produced a 39.1% completion rate with 4.8 YPA. With a clean pocket, Goff has a 80.6% completion rate with 11.2 YPA. While very little were on Goff in Week 3 with an average DraftKings ownership of 0.89%, that’ll change drastically, and rightfully so, in Week 4.

Carlos Hyde ($5,300) vs. Miami Dolphins

Week 3 Salary: $4,300 (+$1,000 increase)

Coupled with the news that Chris Carson is going to miss 1-to-2 weeks due to a first-degree knee sprain, Hyde is looking at an expanded role in the Seahawks’ backfield. His touches have been minimal at best thus far and were actually trending down since Week 1. Against the Cowboys in Week 3, Hyde only carried the ball four times for 12 yards while catching his only target for 11 yards, giving him 3.3 DKFP. He played on the second-most snaps in Week 3, logging 16 after seeing 21 and 15 during the first two weeks.

The potential monkey wrench in all of this is Travis Homer ($4,000), who’ll also be in the mix for the lead running back duties. While Homer has outsnapped Hyde, the majority of his have come on special teams. In all, Homer has lined up in the backfield on 37% of his snaps. Nonetheless, Hyde hasn’t exactly instilled much confidence in the Seahawks to simply hand over the job but he likely has the easier path barring a good showing during practice. If he is the true RB1, he’ll take on a Dolphins run defense that has surrendered an average of 146 rushing yards and 6.1 YPC, which leads the league, along with 57.6 receiving yards to opposing backs.

Marvin Jones Jr. ($4,900) vs. New Orleans Saints

Week 3 Salary: $5,500 (-$600 decrease)

The return of Kenny Golladay ($6,000), who drew seven targets in Week 3, really limited the opportunities for Jones in Week 3. After seeing eight in Week 1, Jones dropped all the way down to just three targets against the Cardinals. He was able to catch all of them for 51 yards, so all was not lost, except for the fact that he was $5,500. With Golladay back in the mix, it’s going to be tough for Jones to keep up a healthy and consistent amount of targets to be on the DFS radar from week-to-week.

Going against the Saints in Week 4 will bring some decent matchups for Jones to combat but none that necessarily standout. His best matchup could come against CB Marshon Lattimore, who has been targeted against 12 times and has allowed 10 receptions for 15.5 YPR and has been scored on twice. Allen Lazzard made three of his six catches for 60 yards against Lattimore, including a 48-yard bomb. The decrease makes Jones more appealing but you’ll likely be looking elsewhere.

Browns DST ($2,300) vs. Dallas Cowboys

Week 3 Salary: $3,800 (-$1,500 decrease)

This is not normally where I would write up a DST because they’re usually so unpredictable and an afterthought when building lineups. However, this is such an insane drop that I figure it was worth mentioning, especially when they were one of the highest scoring on the slate with 14 DKFP. They gave Dwayne Haskins Jr. quite a hellacious Week 3, sacking him three times, grabbing three interceptions and recovering two fumbles. It was quite a performance, but the Browns’ DST now unfortunately has to deal with the Cowboys in Week 4.

To be fair, Dak Prescott ($7,200) has been under pressure a lot this season. Of his 156 dropbacks, he’s felt pressure on 45 of them, or 28%. It’s lead to a 43.2% completion rate for 245 yards and two interceptions. Myles Garrett will certainly create some problems but the possibility of the Cowboys hanging some points on this Browns team is real. The Cowboys are averaging 29.3 points per game while Browns have allowed an average of 29.3 per game. Perfect average, right?

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

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