The Packers are off to a strong 2-0 start, while the Saints are coming off a disappointing showing on MNF in a loss to the Raiders. Both teams should be without their top WR in this game, opening up a lot of cheaper pass-catchers to target on both sides. The Saints are 3.5-point favorites at home, with the 52-point total suggesting plenty of fantasy output.
Let’s break down Packers-Saints from an SNF DraftKings Showdown perspective.
Set your DraftKings lineups here: NFL $1.2M Sunday Night Showdown [$300K to 1st] (GB vs NO)
SHOWDOWN STRATEGY
Green Bay Packers
Davante Adams (hamstring) is doubtful to play in SNF, so we’ll be operating under the assumption that Aaron Rodgers ($11,000) will be without his top target. Because the Packers are so thin at WR, they’ll likely only lineup with Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($6,800) and Allen Lazard ($6,200). But just because Adams is out, it doesn’t mean these two automatically absorb all the targets. Both actually had better games in Week 1 with Adams on the field for the full game. MVS was only able to bring in 3-of-7 targets against the Lions, while Lazard caught 3-of-5. The Raiders didn’t really get much WR production in their win over the Saints, so while both of these guys should be popular plays, it wouldn’t be crazy to play Rodgers without either of them in your lineup.
I’m looking to stack Rodgers with Aaron Jones ($11,400), who actually sees his role increase the most when Adams is sidelined. Last week was a prime example, as Jones finished with a 4-68-1 line as a receiver. Adding his pass-catching upside on top of his rushing potential makes Jones the top overall play on this slate. Jones is averaging 117 rushing yards per game with three total rushing touchdowns on the young season. The Saints had a pretty tough time handling Josh Jacobs last week. With Adams out and the lack of WR depth, we can also expect to see a bit more Jamaal Williams ($2,000) if you need a punt.
The Packers actually have a few punt options, with Robert Tonyan ($2,200) in consideration. He caught 2-of-3 targets for 25 yards and a touchdown last week and could be more of a factor in the red zone without Adams. Mason Crosby ($4,400) is also a pretty safe play given the way this offense is clicking.
New Orleans Saints
Drew Brees ($9,800) got the 300-yard bonus against the Raiders but he did not have a good game. The previous week against the Bucs, the Saints leaned on the ground game, with Brees throwing for just 160 yards despite two passing touchdowns. I think I prefer Rodgers and Jones before Brees, but if I spend down enough at other positions, Brees is worth considering against Green Bay’s secondary. Even with Michael Thomas (ankle) out, Brees has plenty of targets to spread the ball around too.
Emmanuel Sanders ($5,600) sets up in a pretty nice spot the breakout following a couple of awful games to begin his career in New Orleans. He had just one reception for 18 yards without MT last week but figures to be much more involved in this one if game script holds. Tre’Quan Smith ($8,200) is coming off five grabs for 86 yards, stepping up in the absence of Thomas. In theory, I’d love to play him on this slate, but the salary is absurd. I’d much rather take the savings on Sanders.
Jared Cook ($7,600) also was nearly invisible against the Raiders but did bring in a touchdown to save his fantasy day. But like Sanders, Cook should bounce back well at home in this matchup. Back in Week 1 he was targeted seven times, finishing with five receptions for 80 yards. Green Bay has struggled to defend TEs in past seasons.
Taysom Hill ($1,800) is a potential punt play in the passing game but brings an extremely low floor. He could only touch the ball a couple of times, but we did see him score 5.22 DKFP in Week 1.
Alvin Kamara ($11,800) is the New Orleans stud you’ll want to go out of your way to roster. We can fit him with Rodgers and Jones, but none of the three would be able to fit as your captain — unless you want to use the rest of your FLEX positions on punt plays. Latavius Murray ($2,800) is an afterthought for me, with Kamara getting all the important touches. He has just 25 total carries on the season, but three have gone for touchdowns. Kamara also has 14 receptions for 146 yards and another touchdown. If you’re playing just two studs, it’s a game for the RB position. Jones and Kamara should be in terrific spots.
THE OUTCOME
I really disliked what I saw from the Saints last week, while the Packers have been explosive in both of their games. I actually like Green Bay for the upset here, which points toward Aaron Jones ($17,100 CP) as your captain. But going to Alvin Kamara ($17,700) is equally as good an option, regardless of game script.
Final Score: Packers 34, Saints 30
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jedlow) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.