Week 3 in the NFL is upon us, and with the injury bug biting so many teams, there are more chances than ever to take advantage of some low totals on player props. So great that I’ve decided to take two from the same game! Here are my five favorite prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook.
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This is a play I would have liked a lot independent of the defense Johnson will be facing, and one I like even more against the league’s top run defense according to Pro Football Focus. Johnson didn’t have to worry about Duke Johnson stealing his snaps in Week 2, playing 95% of them with the other Johnson out, yet he only managed to run for 34 yards on 11 carries. Much of that was because the Texans played from behind and I think the game script will be the same in Week 3. Houston has seemed much more interested in using David Johnson in the passing game and showed in Week 1 they would like to give Duke Johnson carries. Duke Johnson is “trending” toward playing according to Bill O’Brien, meaning just about everything is working against David Johnson in this one. The game script should keep the ball out of his hands in the second half, Duke Johnson should be in there to vulture touches whenever the Texans do run and Pittsburgh is lights out against rushers anyway.
Here’s the thing: Joe Judge has repeatedly stated since his arrival in New York he’s an “earn your snaps” kind of guy. Is someone third or fourth on the depth chart going to suddenly be thrust into a bellcow role with Saquon Barkley out and gobble up all the work this week? I don’t think that’s likely and I especially don’t think that’s likely when you consider the option is Wayne Gallman, who the Giants have tried and failed as a Saquon replacement. Lewis saw 88% of the team’s snaps last week and picked up 10 carries with Barkley sidelined and see him as a safe bet to at least match that total again. Judge clearly trusts the veteran Lewis a lot and, at least in the short term, he should be the guy most leaned on in the running game.
Yes, I’m going to the same game. No, this game won’t be very fun to watch at all. I’m sorry! This bet just smells too good to me. Jones has rushed for 20 yards in each of his first two games and now the Giants will likely be forced to pass a whole lot more with Saquon out. San Francisco should drop into coverage and sit there all game long, allowing Jones enough short scampers to pick this up.
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Look, this is a hill I am willing to die on. Green has 24 targets through two games, tied for the second-highest mark in the league. It’s clear Joe Burrow has a connection with the veteran and will continue throwing his way. It does not seem possible he gets targeted 10 times and makes fewer than five receptions. He will not continue to catch under 42% of the passes thrown his way. I refuse to believe it!
Newton’s rushed for 75 and 47 yards, respectively, over the course of his first two games in New England. Now he faces a soft Raiders defense which ranks 30th in DVOA and had all sorts of issues stopping the run against the Saints. I expect the Patriots to move the ball at will and judging by their first two games, they will be calling Newton’s number plenty. He’s carried the ball 26 times for an average of 4.7 yards per carry, right around his career average of 5.1, and New England has created a multitude of packages designed for Newton to run. It seems a safe bet he’ll rush 10 times, meaning he should have no issue hitting this over with the rate he’s been gaining yards.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jetsfan196) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.