One of the final days of the regular season brings an 11-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET. Eleven games will take place and with no weather to worry about, we have plenty of picks to talk about.
As always, feel free to throw me a follow on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
Luis Castillo, CIN at MIN $9,800 - On paper, this is a potential danger start for Castillo, as the Twins’ offense has really been picking it up as of late. However, Castillo has also been lights out through the month of September, allowing a total of four runs through 28 2⁄3 innings. In that span, Castillo has just a .218 wOBA, a 2.27 FIP, a 30.8 K% and an 8.4% BB%. With the tough matchup, I wouldn’t be surprised if his ownership isn’t overly high either.
Other Option: Brandon Woodruff ($8,700)
German Marquez, COL at ARI, $7,700 - Marquez is always in the mid-price range because of how poorly he’s performed at Coors Field. That’s totally fine because he’s been great on the road where he’ll be tonight in this game against the Diamondbacks. On the road, Marquez has a .271 wOBA with a 3.89 FIP. Now, he’ll take on a D-Backs offense that’s been so poor against righties with a .313 wOBA, a .169 ISO and 21% K%. He’s a great play for his salary, especially when you consider what else is available, which is not much.
Other Option: Carlos Hernandez ($5,600)
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Christian Vazquez, BOS at ATL, $4,900 - Vazquez has posted some good pop against lefties, entering this game with a .198 ISO against them. He faces off against Tucker Davidson ($6,500), who’ll be making his MLB debut after being at the Braves’ alternate site. He’s posted some good numbers in Double-A but in his final stop at Triple-A, which only lasted 19 innings, he had a 4.10 FIP and 4.26 BB/9.
Other Option: Yasmani Grandal ($4,500)
James McCann, CWS vs CHC, $3,700 - With the lefty Jon Lester ($7,400) on the mound, McCann will likely get the start at DH or behind the dish. Against lefties, McCann has posted an extremely impressive .459 wOBA and a .192 ISO. Lester did not fare well against the White Sox earlier this season, getting absolutely rocked for eight runs on nine hits through just 3 2⁄3 innings. McCann, who’d likely be hitting in the lower half of the lineup, would be a good way to mix up your White Sox stack.
Other Option: Max Stassi ($3,500)
Jose Abreu, CWS vs. CHC, $5,300 - We talk about some of the best hitters around the league this season but Abreu is rarely mentioned. He’s been crushing it and still has a couple of days to hit the 20 home run mark, which if he does, means he would have done so in each season he’s played since 2014. He’s got great numbers against lefties and has a legitimate chance to do some damage, boasting a .379 wOBA and .327 ISO.
Other Option: Eric Hosmer ($5,000)
Carlos Santana, CLE vs. PIT, $3,800 - I’m not crazy about a lot of the cheaper options at first base, so Santana would likely be the lowest salary I’d consider. He’s facing Joe Musgrove ($6,700), who has a .309 wOBA, a 4.52 FIP and three of the five home runs he’s allowed to lefties on the season. As for Santana, his production has been extremely sporadic but he’s a power threat on the cheap.
Other Option: Bobby Dalbec ($3,900)
Ozzie Albies, ATL vs. BOS, $5,200 - Since coming off the injured list, Albies has been crushing the ball from both sides of the plate. During that span, he’s hit five home runs, three doubles and stolen three bases, good for a .443 wOBA and a .277 ISO. Tonight he faces Tanner Houck ($6,900), who we haven’t seen much of but had a 5.30 FIP in his final stop at Triple-A last season.
Other Option: Jake Cronenworth ($4,800)
Jason Kipnis, CHC at CWS, $3,000 - If you need to save some salary at this position, Kipnis is someone to consider. He’s facing Dane Dunning ($8,100) who has been much less effective against lefties than he has righties. In that matchup, Dunning has a .340 wOBA with a 4.41 FIP. Kipnis isn’t going to blow you away with his offensive numbers, but a .348 wOBA and a .191 ISO is much better than you’d likely expect.
Other Option: Josh VanMeter ($2,600)
Manny Machado, SDP at SFG, $5,500 - Machado continues to make a late push for MVP in the National League, as he’s simply plowing through the month of September. In that span, has a .387 wOBA, a .247 ISO with five home runs, four doubles and 17 RBI. Tonight, he’ll be up against Johnny Cueto ($8,000), who is doing the opposite in September and getting hit extremely hard. I mean it too — his 40.7% hard-hit rate is by far the highest mark of the season.
Other Option: Maikel Franco ($4,200)
Eugenio Suarez, CIN at MIN, $3,500 - The matchup admittedly isn’t great for Suarez, as he’s facing Michael Pineda ($8,400). Through four starts, he’s been the starter the Twins have needed in their rotation as he’s produced a 1.99 FIP through 22 2/3 innings. With that said, this is simply way too cheap of a price on Suarez, who has a .322 wOBA and a .261 ISO against righties. This is more of a tournament play than a cash play but if he can get a hold of one, he would easily pay off this $3,500 salary.
Other Option: Alec Bohm ($3,100)
Xander Bogaerts, BOS at ATL $5,200 - Anytime I can get Bogaerts in the lineup against a lefty, I’m taking advantage of it. Even better, as I mentioned, Davidson will be making his major league debut and didn’t exactly dominate in his short stint at Triple-A last season. Bogaerts has posted some absurd numbers against lefties this season and specifically on the road has a .527 wOBA and a .357 ISO along with three of his 10 home runs. At a loaded position, Bogaerts emerges as my guy.
Other Option: Tim Anderson ($5,300)
Willi Castro, DET at KCR, $3,700 - It’s easy to miss someone like Castro, who has been hitting very well as of late, simply because he’s on the Tigers. This is someone who over his past 10 games has averaged 11.6 DKFP with three home runs and 10 RBI. Tonight he’ll face Carlos Hernandez ($5,600), who through 13 innings has a 7.02 FIP. Castro has produced a .384 wOBA with a .212 ISO and five of his six home runs.
Other Option: Dansby Swanson ($4,200)
Trent Grisham, SDP at SF, $4,600 - Grisham is getting hot at the right time as the Padres are on the cusp of playing in the postseason for the first time in 14 years. Over his past 10 games, Grisham is averaging 10.3 DKFP with two home runs, a triple, seven RBI and three stolen bases. He faces Cueto, who has always struggled against lefties throughout his career. It’s been more of the same in 2020, with a .369 wOBA, a 4.77 FIP and three of his eight home runs he’s allowed.
Other Options: Ronald Acuna Jr. ($5,900), Whit Merrifield ($5,200)
Josh Reddick, HOU at TEX, $2,500 - This is a really cheap salary to pay for Reddick, who is in a plus matchup against Kyle Gibson ($6,200). Against lefties, Gibson has been so incredibly bad, posting a .362 wOBA with a 7.02 FIP and seven of the 12 home runs he’s allowed. Reddick isn’t a powerhouse or anything but he does have a little bit of pop against righties. I mean truly, you can’t go wrong here at a $2,500 salary.
Other Options: Victor Reyes ($3,300), Nick Markakis ($3,600)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.