The final Friday of the regular season brings plenty of wagering opportunities with 18 games on the schedule. Let’s not waste any time and dive right into discussing some that could turn out to be profitable.
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox:
Picking the over against the Red Sox is usually a wise idea given the state of their pitching staff. They have allowed an average of six runs per game this season and will have another underwhelming starter taking the mound in Chris Mazza, who has a 5.40 ERA and a bloated 1.72 WHIP. He could be in all sorts of trouble here on the road with the Braves sporting a .887 OPS at home.
Editor’s Note: Braves 1B Freddie Freeman is not in the lineup for tonight’s game vs. the Red Sox.
With how poorly Mazza has pitched, it’s not a bad idea to take a chance on a player prop or two for the Braves. This one is appealing for Swanson considering he has a couple of significant splits working in his favor. First, he is batting .301 against right-handed pitchers. Second, he has a crazy .359 batting average at home. Since we only need one hit from him, give me the over.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Philadelphia Phillies:
Normally an excellent source for strikeouts, Morton has seen his strikeout rate plummet to 23.0% this season. He’s missed some time because of injury and the Rays have a deep bullpen behind him, which has contributed to him pitching no more than 5.2 innings in any of his starts this season. In fact, he has thrown five innings or fewer in five-straight outings. With the expectation that the Rays won’t push him to throw a lot of pitches in this game as they prepare for the playoffs, the under is appealing at these odds.
Miami Marlins at New York Yankees:
Taking the over here might not jump out as a wise wager, as Anderson has failed to record a hit in four of his last six games. However, he’s been excellent against left-handed pitchers, batting .302 against them compared to .245 versus righties. The Yankees will start southpaw J.A. Happ, who isn’t an overwhelming force with his career 20.9% strikeout rate, leaving Anderson in a favorable spot to get at least one hit.
Minnesota Twins vs. Cincinnati Reds:
The Twins have caught fire, heading into the final weekend of the season on a four-game winning streak. The last two victories have come at home, where they are 23-5 this season. They will send one of their best starters to the mound in Jose Berrios, who has also thrived pitching at home with a 3.04 FIP and a 1.04 WHIP. Meanwhile, the Reds are 13-15 on the road and will be starting Tyler Mahle, who has a 1.50 WHIP on the road compared to a 0.95 WHIP at home. This has the makings of another win for the Twins.
Braves Moneyline (-175) + Indians ML (+119)
The Braves won’t have a very good pitcher taking the mound in this game against the Red Sox, either, with Kyle Wright set to start. However, they are the far superior team and are 18-9 at home this season. The Red Sox have also struggled to score runs on the road, averaging 4.2 runs a night compared to 5.2 runs per contest at Fenway Park. Look for the Braves to overpower them on the way to a win.
This is a huge game for the Indians, who are only two games behind the Twins for the AL Central lead and one game behind the White Sox to move into second place in the division. They’ve put themselves in a position to pass both teams by winning five-straight games. Meanwhile, the Pirates have the worst record in baseball and are only 5-20 on the road. Add in Carlos Carrasco pitching for the Indians and they have a great opportunity to continue their winning streak.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mbarner51) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.