We’re trying something a bit new this year, as I’ll be taking a season-long ride we’re calling “The Bankroll Challenge.”
Basically, I’ll start with 50 units to wager on DraftKings Sportsbook for this NFL season and try to build that bankroll as large as possible. In order to do that, I’ll save the majority of my bankroll to use week-to-week, but betting futures has been profitable for me in recent seasons, so I’ll want to sprinkle some of that in as well.
This article is going to be where my most confident plays go, so while a best bets article may highlight the top five bets to consider one week, this is the place I’ll be posting selective bets that I’m most confident in, along with a unit amount.
This article will also be a running blog, so look for more plays to be dropped in throughout the week with fresh updates.
You can find my NFL Futures bets for the Bankroll Challenge here.
Last week had some spots I really liked and wanted to take advantage of. While we crushed the games, we gave way too much back in player props. Not as much jumps out to me in Week 3 — especially as I post on Thursday — but here are some early spots I’ll be betting. Make note, I might not lock all of these right away, I may come back and get a better number.
NE -5.5 (-107) — risk 2.14 to win 2
I have a feeling we might be able to get this one at 5, so I’m not locking it in quite yet (UPDATE: we missed 5, so this is locked). But this one has the feeling of a letdown spot for the Raiders, who are getting overhyped a bit following the MNF win over the Saints. To me, I think that game said a lot more about how bad the Saints looked than how good the Raiders looked. Then we have the Pats coming off a close loss to a dangerous Seahawks team, setting up a great bounce-back spot at home.
Cam Newton to Score a TD (-106) — risk 2.12 to win 2
It’s hard not to like Cam to find the end zone right now. He has four rushing touchdowns through the first two games and is essentially the goal line running back for New England — he handled 55% of the red zone carries in Week 1, and that went up to 75% in Week 2. He should have plenty of red zone opportunities to get into the end zone against a cushy Raiders defense.
N’Keal Harry Receptions: OVER 4.5 (+115) — risk 1 to win 1.15
In the passing game, Cam’s shown a ton of trust in Harry. He’s hyped up the young WR to the media but his play is backing up his talk, targeting Harry 18 times so far. Harry had five receptions in Week 1 and followed that up with eight catches in Seattle. This is a pretty modest number for the role we’ve seen the 2019 first-rounder play in this offense.
LAC -6.5 (-115) — risk 1.15 to win 1
This is another spot I’m pretty high on this week, but only laying one unit for now with the idea I’ll include the Chargers in some kind of moneyline parlay. Justin Herbert looked great in his debut without even prepping for it, almost getting a win over the Super Bowl champs. This defense looked for real against Patrick Mahomes, and now it gets to face a Teddy Bridgewater Panthers offense that’s operating under new coaches and without Christian McCaffrey (ankle). This sets up as a spot the Chargers can win by double-digits, and really run the ball down Carolina’s throat. UPDATE: Just leaving it to this bet for backing the Chargers.
Nick Mullens Passing Yards: UNDER 252.5 (-112) — risk 1.12 to win 1
For starters, I like this under because Mullens just isn’t very good. But the spot against the Giants hasn’t been as favorable for opposing QBs as you’d imagine. Ben Roethlisberger only threw for 229 yards against them in Week 1 and Mitchell Trubisky threw for just 190 last week. I don’t see San Francisco airing it out much with Mullens, especially still without the starting WRs and with George Kittle out. The counterargument is that without Raheem Mostert and Tevin Coleman the running game could struggle, but Jerick McKinnon and Jeff Wilson should still be the key pieces on offense. Mullens was 8-of-11 for just 71 yards in the second half against the Jets last week.
Cincinnati Bengals at Philadelphia Eagles
Drew Sample Receptions: OVER 3.5 (-132) — risk 1.32 to win 1
Joe Burrow has been locked in on the TE position early in his career. C.J. Uzomah was targeted 11 times in the first two games of the season, recording eight receptions prior to being placed on IR. Even with Uzomah out there the majority of the game, Sample surprisingly saw nine targets, turning them into seven receptions. Now Sample steps into the starting role against an Eagles defense that’s had a lot of trouble with Logan Thomas and Tyler Higbee in the first two weeks of the season.
FUTURE UNITS PENDING: 5.88
UNITS REMAINING: 37.11
WEEK 3 UNITS PENDING: 8.85
SEASON TOTAL: 9-10 (+1.84 UNITS)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jedlow) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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