It’s the final hump day of the 2020 regular season, and the race for the postseason is in its final stage. Several teams are looking to wrap up their divisions, while teams like the Astros, Marlins and Phillies are still fighting to play in October. With the stage set, I’ve picked out three of my favorite MLB bets to consider on DraftKings Sportsbook.
New York Mets vs. Tampa Bay Rays
This one might be hard to stomach, but the Mets are still very much alive in the playoff hunt. Sitting just 2.5 games back of the Brewers for the final spot in the NL, New York needs this win, and seemed reinvigorated in last night’s 5-2 win over Tampa Bay. Michael Wacha gets the ball for the Mets who is a big peripherals guy, holding an ERA about two full runs higher than his expected ERA when factoring hit probabilities, exit velocity and the like. What’s more, the Rays have scored an average of two runs per game over their past five. We have a pitcher that’s due for regression and an offense that’s limping, so I think a tough night at the plate is in the cards. Tyler Glasnow will be a challenge for the Mets, but with the Rays sitting pretty in the race and the Mets hot at the plate, we could see a reversal of fortunes. This is value.
Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves
That’s right, back to the NL East we go. Miami is still motivated to win some games — with a magic number of three — and they are banking on getting one tonight with their stud youngster Sixto Sanchez pitching. Sanchez has been absolutely disgusting since his call-up from Triple-A last month. He ranks towards the top of the league in expected wOBA and batting average, he’s limiting walks to just a 5% clip and he’s flashing major strikeout potential with his changeup. He is more than capable of calming a torrid offense on the Atlanta side, as capable as the Marlins are of hitting Fried — a Cy Young Award candidate. The Marlins hold the ninth-best wRC+ against lefties this year, so they’ll actually welcome the sight of the southpaw. Don’t get cute and get the bullpens involved here, just back Sanchez to keep the Braves off the board and give his offense a chance of scratching out a couple for the win.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals:
The Cardinals check all my boxes here, and don’t have the challenge of facing a stud pitcher like the previous two picks. A short road favorite, St. Louis sits in the fifth spot in the NL playoff race with a magic number of five. They possess a 107 wRC+ against lefties — just outside the top 10 in baseball — and will face one tonight in Danny Duffy. They’ve also been in the top-half of the league in scoring runs over the past week. They’re hungry, they’re starting to see the ball well and they get to face a pitcher with a pretty horrendous batted ball profile. Carlos Martinez’s numbers may scare you, but he’s only pitched 15.0 innings. Consider his larger body of work, the middling Royals lineup and what’s at stake and grab this short moneyline.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jetsfan196) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.