The MLB regular season is winding down, but we have 11 more games to choose from on Monday’s slate. It starts with the Angels vs. the Rangers at 4:10 p.m. ET and wraps up with the Giants vs. the Rockies at 9:45 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into three of my favorite bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for Monday’s slate.
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies
This could be a sneaky-good pitching matchup today.
The Giants will send Johnny Cueto to the mound. He’s not the same pitcher that he was during his prime – he’s pitched to a 4.45 FIP in 2020 – but he should still be able to shut down the Rockies’ offense. They are simply not the same team when playing away from Coors Field, particularly against right-handed pitchers. They rank just 29th in wRC+ in that situation and only the offensively-challenged Pirates have been worse.
The Rockies will turn to German Márquez, who has quietly been excellent this season. His numbers are dragged down by the fact that roughly half his starts come at Coors Field, but he has pitched to a 2.64 ERA on the road. Oracle Park is one of the most pitcher-friendly venues in all of baseball, so this represents a massive park upgrade for Márquez.
New York Mets vs. Tampa Bay Rays
The Mets’ slim playoff hopes are fading with each loss, but they will have one of the best pitchers in baseball on the mound today in Jacob deGrom. He’s coming off a rough start in his last outing – he allowed three earned runs over two innings – but deGrom rarely struggles in back-to-back starts. That’s a big part of the reason why he has won two straight NL Cy Young awards.
The Mets should have a big edge on the mound in this matchup vs. the Rays. They will be starting Pete Fairbanks, which means this will be a bullpen game for them. The Rays have one of the best bullpens in baseball – they rank fourth in bullpen ERA this season – but that still puts them at a disadvantage vs. deGrom.
The Mets have also been arguably the best offensive team in baseball this season, ranking first in wRC+, but they’ve struggled to hit with runners in scoring position. There’s no reason they should be significantly worse in that situation, so they could be due for some progression moving forward.
Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Let’s wrap things up with a player prop bet. The Cardinals are in one of the best offensive spots of the day. They lead all teams with an implied team total of 5.3 runs and they’re taking on Royals right-hander Carlos Hernández. Hernandez has struggled over 9 1⁄3 innings this season, pitching to a 7.04 FIP.
More importantly, Hernández has struggled with the long ball. He has allowed three HRs this season and all three of those HRs have come against left-handed batters. The result is an average of 5.06 HRs per nine innings when facing left-handed batters in particular.
The Cardinals’ lineup is a little light on left-handed batters, but Carpenter fits the description. His power numbers are down this season – he has hit just three HRs over 149 plate appearances – but that means we’re getting some juicy odds here. All of Carpenter’s HRs have come against right-handed pitchers, so this is an excellent matchup for him.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mlamarca) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.