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MLB Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Baseball DFS Predictions, Betting Odds for September 2

Steve Buchanan breaks down Wednesday’s DraftKings MLB slate with pitching and hitting analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

Wednesday features a solid 10-gamer starting at 7:05 p.m. ET. While we do have some weather concerns to keep an eye out for, this slate features a really, really good mix of pitching options to use and teams to stack. Let’s get right into all the information you crave for tonight!

As always, feel free to follow me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Set your DraftKings lineups here: MLB $225K Relay Throw [$50K to 1st]

Game Notes

Biggest Moneyline Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Kyle Hendricks, $8,700, CHC (-220) vs. PIT (+185) — I’m never a huge fan of using Hendricks because of the lack of strikeout upside he offers. I mean, for a guy that’s pushing the $9K salary range, a 19.1% K% isn’t all that appealing, now is it? But, to be fair, he still gets outs and a 3.65 FIP backs that up. He’ll face off against the Pirates, who continue to dwell in the basement in offensive categories against righties with a .259 wOBA and a .126 ISO. They do offer up some strikeout potential with a 26.3 K% so Hendricks could grab a few here, as he’s coming off a start against the Reds with six. He’s not my favorite play on the evening and he probably never will be (unless it’s a Showdown contest.....and even that’s a maybe) but the matchup is certainly in his favor.

Other notable favorites: Cristian Javier ($9,300; -220) vs. Rangers, Dinelson Lamet ($9,900; -205) vs. Angels

Highest Projected Total

ATL (-125, 5.5 runs) vs. BOS (+108, 4.5 runs) 10.5 runs — We avoided Coors Field tonight, as they have an early game this afternoon but with the way the Braves have been hitting against the Red Sox, you’d never know this was in Boston. Mike Kickham ($4,000) is, I think, the 94th starter the Red Sox are trying out this season. He’s had a cup of coffee in the majors back in 2013 and 2014 with the Giants but only pitched a total of 31 1/3 innings. He’s been in the minors since with four different teams. Last season in Triple-A for the Marlins, he posted a 4.75 FIP with a 22% K% and a 9.4 BB%. The Braves numbers against lefties certainly favor Kickham, as the Braves have just a .279 wOBA (26th), a .154 ISO (22nd) and a 28.4 K% (1st). Something to think about when making tournament lineups, at least. In all though, the Braves at 5.5 runs is still plausible as the Red Sox’ bullpen continues to struggle.

Editor’s Note: Mike Kickham has been replaced by Robinson Leyer ($4,000) for tonight’s start.

Other notable team totals: CHC (5.5) vs. PIT, SDP (5.5) vs. LAA

Curious about when major leagues and events will return? Check out our DraftKings Sports Calendar for the latest updates.

Weather Concerns

TB @ NYY —We could see some rain late in this game but this should start without any issue. This isn’t a big concern but as always, take a look before first pitch.

WAS @ PHI — This looks to be the biggest concern on the slate with rain moving in after the game beings. In the wild COVID-19 era, it’s hard to tell what could get postponed and what won’t. This will need a second look later today.

ATL @ BOS — A potential delay to start and maybe rain later in the evening. Again, not a major concern but who knows in 2020, man.

Splits to Start

Note: This section will now show the combined stats from 2019 and 2020

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Reynaldo Lopez, .368, 5.58
Adrian Houser, .368, 5.03
Jakob Junis, .354, 4.36

Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Walker Buehler, .260, 2.80
Kyle Hendricks, .267, 3.10
Zac Gallen, .278, 3.75

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Reynaldo Lopez, .338, 4.71
Robbie Erlin, .330, 4.42
Jakob Junis, .328, 5.37

Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Max Scherzer, .228, 1.71
Adrian Houser, .262, 3.53
Zack Wheeler, .274 3.04

Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Cristian Javier, HOU vs. TEX, $9,300 — We have a lot of big names on this slate but you can throw out some reasons to avoid them with almost all of them due to matchup, returning from the IL or weather. Javier doesn’t fit any of those and has a matchup against the strikeout happy Rangers. Framber Valdez got off to a bit of a tough start last night against them but ended up striking out eight through seven innings while allowing three runs on five hits, good for 20.3 DKFP. We could see a similar night for Javier, who has a 25.6% K% through 31 innings.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Xander Bogaerts, BOS vs. ATL, $5,100 — Bogaerts continues to be one of the most consistent hitters in the Red Sox’ lineup and draws a very good matchup this evening against Robbie Erlin ($5,600). It’s been quite the struggle for Erlin this season and now faces Bogaerts, who against lefties has a .469 wOBA and a .350 ISO on the year. Coming into this game, Bogaerts is averaging 10.7 DKFP with three home runs, four doubles and eight RBI over his last 10 games.

Save Big by Drafting

Victor Reyes, DET at MIL, $3,100 — Reyes is dirt cheap this evening and that’s great news for us because he’s in a favorable matchup against Adrian Houser ($8,500). To say that Houser has been struggling against lefties would be an understatement, as they’ve tagged him for 14 of the 16 runs he’s allowed to go with a .420 wOBA. With Reyes as a switch-hitter at the top of the Tigers lineup, this is a great spot at a very cheap salary.

Favorite Team To Stack

MIN vs. CWS (vs. Reynaldo Lopez) — The Twins may not be the same offense they were against lefties last season but that’s fine, we can use them frequently against righties. Overall, the Twins have a .318 wOBA with a .188 ISO against righties and already hit Lopez hard in his first start. In his first start of the season against the Twins, Lopez allowed four runs on three hits in just 23 of an inning before his departure, which landed him on the injured list. Lopez throws a ton of pitches and usually gets into trouble early, so don’t be afraid to get those Twins bats in your lineup.

Set your DraftKings lineups here: MLB $225K Relay Throw [$50K to 1st]

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

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