After a memorable Game 7 on Tuesday night between the Nuggets and the Jazz, we’re gifted with another do-or-die matchup on Wednesday between the Rockets and the Thunder. Still, something tells me James Harden and Chris Paul won’t be helping each other off the floor and hugging when things are said and done.
Let’s break it all down everything you need to know for tonight’s two-game slate position-by-position.
Chris Paul, OKC at HOU, $8,200 - When it has mattered most in this series against the Rockets, Paul has shown up in a major way. Down 2-0 heading into Game 3, Paul logged 41 minutes and scored 45.0 DKFP in the Thunder’s 119-107 win; then, down 3-2 heading into Game 6, Paul played 40 minutes and registered 48.75 DKFP. I expect we’ll see a similar workload on Wednesday with similar results.
George Hill, MIL vs. MIA, $4,300 - Though the actual DFS output was underwhelming, it’s clear how much Mike Budenholzer trusts Hill in the absence of Eric Bledsoe (hamstring). In fact, Hill joined Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,400) and Khris Middleton ($8,100) as the only three Milwaukee players to log over 36 minutes in Monday’s loss. Yes, that role still led to just five field goal attempts, but Hill’s not ever going to be a high-volume shooter. If Bledsoe is ruled out again, he’s almost a necessary value option on a slate this small.
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Jimmy Butler, MIA at MIL, $8,300 - Butler’s price only went up $200 following his 40-point performance in Game 1, which doesn’t seem like enough considering the heroics. The veteran was everywhere for the Heat, maintaining a pristine .778 true shooting percentage despite the volume of a 33.8% usage rate. Butler is a proven playoff scorer on a team that still skews pretty young. I’d expect his workload doesn’t change too much on Wednesday, even if a little regression should probably be baked into his projection.
Duncan Robinson, MIA at MIL, $4,700 - This is a classic pivot spot for Robinson, who has clearly been losing minutes to Tyler Herro ($5,300) so far in these playoffs. Still, it only takes one hot shooting stretch from Robinson to turn everything around. I mean, the sophomore did go 7-for-8 from 3-point range in Game 2 against the Pacers. It’s a scenario that’s very much on the table for Robinson, as he shot an astounding 44.6% from distance on 8.3 attempts per contest during the regular season.
Khris Middleton, MIL vs. MIA, $8,100 - For as poor as Middleton looked in Milwaukee’s opening few games against Orlando, the All-Star has seemingly turned things around. To wit, Middleton’s averaged 43.1 DKFP per contest in the Bucks’ past four matchups, a span where he’s shot 14-for-30 (46.7%) from 3-point range. Middleton should also be the beneficiary of the hot seat beginning to form under his coach. In Game 1, the forward logged 37 minutes for just the fourth time in 2019-20. Considering Milwaukee still lost, maybe that number gets pushed even a little bit higher this evening?
Luguentz Dort, OKC at HOU, $4,000 - This is especially true if the aforementioned Bledsoe ends up being active, but the most appealing aspect of Dort from a DFS perspective is his salary. You’re going to have to pay down somewhere, and you could do worse than an asset that’s averaged 11.0 field goal attempts in his five games against Houston. Not to mention the fact that Dort’s managed to exceed 20.0 DKFP on three of those occasions.
Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL vs. MIA, $11,400 - Here’s the thing about Antetokounmpo’s “poor” performance in Game 1 against the Heat: He was still just a single assist shy of a triple-double. The possibilities are endless for the Greek Freak if he’s getting anywhere close to 40 minutes of action, as he’s averaging well over 1.7 DKFP per minute played so far in the playoffs. I’m expecting a bounce-back showing from Milwaukee as a whole, but, even if you don’t believe that, know that Antetokounmpo isn’t going to shoot 33.3% from the free throw line for a second-straight contest.
Robert Covington, HOU vs. OKC, $5,900 - After being a non-factor in the first three games of Houston’s series against Oklahoma City, Covington has obviously found his rhythm. The forward has averaged 42.8 DKFP across his team’s past two contests, as Mike D’Antoni’s rotation continues to get tighter and tighter. Generally speaking, all you ask of Covington as a DFS asset is to hit his perimeter shots and contribute in secondary categories. Well, since Game 4, the veteran is shooting 14-for-25 (56.0%) from 3-point range, with eight steals and five blocks. That’ll play.
Brook Lopez, MIL vs. MIA, $5,500 - Lopez’s stock is always hurt by his positionally underwhelming rebounding totals, but this seems like a nice price point to grab someone with his floor. Lopez is averaging 28.4 DKFP across his past five games and I’d be surprised if he logs fewer than 30 minutes in Game 2 with Milwaukee likely not looking to go down 2-0. He’s also registered 30-plus DKFP each of the last three times he’s faced Miami in 2019-20.
P.J. Tucker, HOU vs. OKC, $4,500 - Unless foul trouble comes into play, I’m just not sure how often we see Tucker leave the court on Wednesday night. In this series, the Rockets have outscored the Thunder by 10.3 points per 100 possessions with Tucker in the lineup, as the veteran has flashed his steady defense and rebounding. If that workload turns out to be true, Tucker should easily clear 5x value.
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