Welcome back for Week 2 as we run down my top five NFL QB-WR stacks for DraftKings’ fantasy football slate this week. Let’s get to it.
For the uninitiated, the concept behind stacking a QB with his WR is simple: both players benefit from each completion, doubling the benefit of that play for your DraftKings fantasy lineup. With the significance of stacking in mind, this article aims to highlight the best stacking options for Sunday’s main DraftKings slate.
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5. Tom Brady ($6,500)/Scotty Miller ($4,100), Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers
Brady’s Buccaneers debut did not inspire a ton of confidence, but they were facing what we believe to be one of the NFL’s best defenses (I’m careful to avoid overconfidence when assessing defenses early in the season). Of course, it was Brady’s first game ever away from Bill Belichick and the Patriots, so perhaps some turbulence should have been expected. And, as shaky as it looked, a garbage-time TD pass to Mike Evans ($6,400) helped get Brady to a solid 22.46 DKFP. Even when it looks ugly, Brady can still pay DFS dividends.
In Week 2, TB-squared gets the Panthers, who look like early frontrunners for the “worst defense of the season” award. They were in the bottom third of the NFL in points allowed, yards allowed and defensive DVOA in 2019, and then the lost several key starters over the offseason. With both Mike Evans (hamstring) and Chris Godwin (concussion) active in Week 1, Miller was second on the team in targets, receptions and yards. I’m making this recommendation on the assumption that Godwin is out Sunday and that Evans is available – both of their statuses remain uncertain. If Godwin plays and Evans practices in full on Friday then I’d cool off of Miller a bit, but his Week 1 usage tells me that he’s probably still a value even if everyone is fully healthy. At this salary, Miller is usable if he can reproduce last weekend’s 21% air yards share and 18% target share. However, if Godwin (or Evans) is out and Miller can improve upon those figures, then he could become one of the best bargains on the DraftKings slate.
4. Jared Goff ($5,800)/Robert Woods ($6,400), Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles
Woods’ salary is still below Cooper Kupp’s ($6,700). Over their last eight games together, Woods has seen 17 more targets, three more catches, 164 more yards, and 225 more air yards. Woods has recorded more DKFP in six of those eight contests. While Kupp was the Rams’ No. 1 option over the first half of 2019, he isn’t anymore, and DraftKings’ salaries have not yet caught up the new reality – we should take advantage while we still can.
The Rams’ offense still hasn’t returned to their world-beating 2018 ways, but they looked better in Week 1 than they did for most of last season. Goff was efficient with his 31 pass attempts, and the Rams are likely to throw more in Week 2, as Philadelphia has been a top-tier run defense for the last several seasons. Additionally, the Eagles were an average pass defense in 2019 and they just gave up 27 points to Washington. It’s too soon to say if they’re a secondary I’ll deliberately target this season, but they definitely aren’t scaring me away.
3. Kyler Murray ($6,100)/DeAndre Hopkins ($7,700), Arizona Cardinals vs. Washington Football Team
Murray attempted 40 passes and 13 runs in Week 1, finishing with 27.3 DKFP. That was against the 49ers, 2019’s second-best defense by almost any metric. Now he’s facing the Washington Football Team in Week 2 and his salary dropped? Some of those savings are offset by Hopkins’ steep cost, but Murray’s discount is enough to make this stack a massive discount. And Hopkins is easily worth his high salary. He led the NFL in target share in Week 1. He averaged 18.8 DKFP last season and has scored less than 12 DKFP just four times in the last three seasons. He has topped 32 DKFP six times in that span.
Washington deserves some credit for holding the Eagles to just 17 points and 265 total yards in Week 1, but this is probably still a bad defense that fantasy managers should target. Last week was a divisional matchup and the Eagles were missing multiple offensive starters. In 2019, Washington’s defense also had a few surprisingly good performances, but they still allowed at least 30 points in half their games and finished in the bottom seven in points allowed, yards allowed and defensive DVOA.
2. Dak Prescott ($6,800)/CeeDee Lamb ($4,700), Dallas Cowboys vs. Atlanta Falcons
Lamb did everything I could have wanted in Week 1, yet his salary only jumped $200. In his NFL debut and in an offense overloaded with good pass-catchers, Lamb saw multiple first half targets and played on 82% of snaps. Combined, those tell me that Lamb was a featured part of their game plan. Furthermore, his matchup goes from probably-very-bad (Rams) to probably-one-of-the-best. Dallas also lost TE Blake Jarwin (knee), which will probably cause Prescott to send fewer targets to the TEs. Lamb was an incredibly exciting prospect, and to see him so effective right out of the gate despite the lack of a preseason has me bullish on his immediate potential moving forward. Amari Cooper ($6,300) also strikes me as a bargain here, so I may roll with a few double-stacks and a smattering of Prescott-Cooper only pairings, but I’m much more excited about Lamb’s value here.
Atlanta’s defense looked awful in Week 1, though we don’t yet know how much of that should be credited to Russell Wilson’s awesomeness. For what it’s worth, DVOA, which attempts to balance out situations to get closer to the real quality of a team, ranked the Falcons’ defense dead last after Week 1. Either way, Prescott’s salary seems fair. He topped 20 DKFP 11 times last season, and his receiving weapons got better over the offseason.
1. Lamar Jackson ($8,200)/Marquise Brown ($6,200), Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans
Brown’s salary is up $1,100 over Week 1. By season’s end, my guess is that we’ll still look back fondly on the days we could get him for “only” $6,200. Brown and Mark Andrews ($6,300) dominate the Ravens’ passing targets, with Brown seeing the bulk of the big play opportunities. Brown saw 47% of the team’s air yards in Week 1, the eighth-highest figure in the league alongside names like Hopkins, Julian Edelman, Adam Thielen and DK Metcalf. Brown had an up-and-down rookie season, but he averaged 16.9 DKFP in games when he saw at least five targets – and that was playing through a foot injury all season. Now he’s healthy and firmly established as the Ravens’ top receiving weapon.
It’s still way too soon to judge this 2020 Texans’ defense, as everyone looks bad when facing the Chiefs. That said, all available evidence points towards this being a favorable matchup. In 2019, they were below average against the run and near the bottom of the league against the pass. None of their offseason personnel moves imply that their secondary will be any better. They used two early draft picks on their defensive front-seven and J.J. Watt is playing again after missing half the year, so some progress seems likely, but they ranked second-to-last in DVOA when defending QB runs last season – that’s still an attractive matchup even if they improved. Jackson is borderline matchup-proof after topping 20 DKFP in 16 of his last 17 games, yet this has the potential to be a particularly juicy opponent for him.
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