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MLB Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Baseball DFS Predictions, Betting Odds for September 16

Steve Buchanan breaks down Wednesday’s DraftKings MLB slate with pitching and hitting analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

Another day, another NORMAL start time for Wednesday’s MLB slate, which locks at 7:05 p.m. ET. We have a number of big-name aces taking the hill tonight, so this could end up being a tough night to pay up for hitters. Let’s take a dive into tonight’s slate on DraftKings.

As always, feel free to follow me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Set your DraftKings lineups here: MLB $200K Relay Throw [$50K to 1st]

Game Notes

Biggest Moneyline Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Gerrit Cole, $9,900, NYY (-275) vs. TOR (+215) — Uh-oh. The Yankees are big favorites with Cole on the mound tonight. He has turned it around a bit lately, with back-to-back starts allowing no more than a run, but both those starts also came against the Orioles. This is his first time facing the Blue Jays this season, and it’ll be at Yankee Stadium, where he has pitched his best baseball. At home, Cole has allowed a .280 wOBA with a 4.02 FIP with six of the 13 home runs he’s allowed. The Blue Jays are a strong club against righties with a team .330 wOBA and a .186 ISO, and they don’t strikeout much either with a 22.1% K%. With that in mind, this is the first time you’re getting Cole under $10K this season, even if it’s only by $100. We know the upside he brings, and he’s coming off a 41 DKFP performance; it’s simply been hard to trust him as of late.

Other notable favorites: Lance McCullers Jr. ($7,500; -250) vs. Rangers, Cole Hamels ($7,800; -177) vs. Orioles

Highest Projected Total

ATL (-177, 5.5 runs) vs. BAL (+148, 3.5 runs) 10 runs — With Coors Field playing an afternoon game, the Braves in Baltimore is the highest projected scoring game on this slate at 10 runs, according to DraftKings Sportsbook. The total is heavily weighted toward the Braves, who have a 5.5 team total compared to the Orioles at 3.5. The Braves will see Keegan Akin ($6,100) who has only pitched 13 2/3 innings, allowing nine runs (seven earned) on 11 hits with 16 strikeouts and eight walks. He does have a good 3.79 FIP, but we have a really small sample to go off. We haven’t seen him go past 5 13 innings, so that could mean more of the Orioles’ bullpen, who have really been struggling as of late.

I also don’t think it’s crazy to like taking the over on the Orioles 3.5 team total. They’ve been a good hitting club against lefties with a. 322 wOBA, a .187 ISO and only a 22.6% K%. Cole Hamels ($7,800) is making his season debut and only tossed three innings in a simulation, so he won’t be going much further than that. Not to mention, the Braves’ bullpen isn’t exactly a strength of the team. This total is simply too low for me to take the under on, so I really like going over on this total.

Other notable team totals: Yankees (5.5) vs. Blue Jays, Astros (5.5) vs. Rangers

Weather Concerns

No weather concerns!

Splits to Start

UPDATE: With most teams caught up on games played, this section will feature ONLY 2020 stats.

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Kyle Gibson, .377, 7.06
Johnny Cueto, .359, 4.62
Lance McCullers Jr., .347, 4.36

Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Jacob deGrom, .219 2.24
Lucas Giolito, .246, 2.56
Aaron Civale, .255, 2.58

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Tanner Roark, .509, 8.05
Tarik Skubal, .413, 6.74
Kyle Gibson, .395, 5.28

Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Dylan Bundy, .192, 1.10
Jacob deGrom, .224, 1.70
Lucas Giolito, .253 3.04

Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Jacob deGrom, NYM at PHI, $10,400 — This will be the second time deGrom will be facing the Phillies, and he completely wiped the floor with them in his first game against them. Tossing seven innings, he allowed just one run on three hits with 12 strikeouts, good for 38.8 DKFP. Since August 19, which is a span of five starts, deGrom hasn’t allowed more than one run in a start, has gone at least six innings in all of them while striking out at least seven. Of all the expensive pitchers going tonight, he’s the play for me.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Alex Bregman, HOU vs. TEX, $4,800 — It has been a bit of a struggle for Bregman since coming off the injured list, but he’s starting to show signs of coming around. He has logged four hits over his last three games and now has a very enticing matchup against Kyle Gibson ($5,900) tonight. Gibson simply can’t get righties out and has a .395 wOBA with a 5.28 FIP and five of the 11 total home runs he has allowed. If there was an opportunity for Bregman to remain on track, this is a matchup I would be targeting.

Save Big by Drafting

Justin Upton, LAA vs. ARI, $3,600 — Give the man his credit, he has crushing the ball lately. Granted, his overall statline is ugly, but he has two home runs, two doubles and nine RBI over his last 10 games, pushing his average in that span to 9.4 DKFP. On top of that, the majority of his power has come against lefties this season, where he has a .250 ISO and a .300 wOBA. He’ll be facing Caleb Smith ($5,800), who hasn’t looked great in his first two starts and has walked seven hitters through six innings thus far.

Favorite Team To Stack

New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays (vs. Tanner Roark) — Roark does two things when he’s on the mound: walks you (12% BB%) or gives up a home run (2.5 HR/9). Nothing in between (unconfirmed). He has some really, really bad numbers on the road this season as well with a .404 wOBA, a 5.75 FIP and five of the 10 home runs he’s allowed. With this Yankees lineup looking more and more like it was intended, this should be a long (short) evening for Roark.

Set your DraftKings lineups here: MLB $200K Relay Throw [$50K to 1st]

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