Boy, do I feel like kicking back and relaxing with all this extra time I have today with this “late” start of 7:05 p.m. ET. After all these wild start times — including 4:10 and 6:05 — I have a plethora of time to waste.
As always, feel free to follow me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
Editor’s Note: Tonight’s game between the Giants and the Mariners has been postponed due to poor air quality.
Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Jose Urquidy, $6,600 HOU vs. TEX (-200) — Urquidy had a late start to the season and has only made two starts thus far. Throwing against the Angels and Athletics, he’s allowed four runs on six hits while striking out three in 9.2 innings. We have reason to be optimistic that he’ll be better than this, as he displayed much better strikeout potential in 2019 with a 24% rate. He’s in a good spot to up that number, as the Rangers currently have a 24.1 strikeout rate against righties, which is ranked 12th in the league. The Astros will be taking on Kyle Cody ($5,900) who hasn’t pitched much with only 9.2 innings under his belt, but has already walked eight.
Other notable favorites: Sean Manaea ($8,100; -167) vs. Colorado Rockies, Deivi Garcia ($6,800; -159) vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Highest Projected Total
OAK (-167, 6.5 runs) vs. COL (+145, 4.5 runs) 11.5 runs — It’s a huge team total for the Athletics this evening as they take on Antonio Senzatela ($6,900) at Coors Field. Ironically, he’s pitched some of his best baseball here, boasting a .293 wOBA with a 2.83 FIP (!) and only one of the eight home runs he’s allowed. The A’s were also a team he pitched well against on the road, allowing only two runs on six hits with three strikeouts through five innings. So for me, this could be a potential under spot on the team total. Meanwhile, I’m surprised the Rockies are at only 4.5 runs with the lefty Sean Manaea ($8,100) taking the hill. At home against lefties, the Rockies have a .378 wOBA with a .186 ISO. Quite frankly, I’m going reverse on how the lines are set, despite Manaea pitching well as of late.
Other notable team totals: Braves (5.5) vs. Orioles, Astros (5.5) vs. Rangers
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No weather concerns!
EDITOR’S NOTE: Tonight’s Giants-Mariners game has been postponed due to poor air quality.
Splits to Start
UPDATE: With most teams caught up on games, this section will now focus on 2020 numbers ONLY.
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Julio Teheran, .396 7.87
Taijuan Walker, .387, 7.35
Tyler Anderson, .382, 4.94
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Zach Davies, .195, 3.10
Yu Darvish, .239, 2.94
Tony Gonsolin, .245, 3.33
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Matthew Boyd, .447, 7.07
Madison Bumgarner, .444, 11.15
Rick Porcello, .376, 3.49
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Dane Dunning, .141, 2.39
Tony Gonsolin, .208, 2.33
Yu Darvish, .217 1.11
Pitcher to Build Around
Jack Flaherty, STL at MIL, $9,400 — We have A LOT of quality pitching options to choose from tonight, so you can truly go a number of ways. Personally, I’m all about using Flaherty against a Brewers lineup that is simply looking forward to the end of this season. Entering this game, the Brewers have a .290 wOBA, a .141 ISO and the second-highest strikeout rate at 25.6%. While Flaherty’s strikeouts have been down a tick at 25%, he’s still generating plenty of swings-and-misses at 13.4%, which is right in line with where he’s been all throughout his career. I’ll take this matchup with plenty of strikeout appeal while staying under the $10K salary threshold.
Heavy Hitter to Pay For
Anthony Rendon, LAA vs. ARI, $5,400 — If there is one guy I want to pick on tonight, it’s Madison Bumgarner ($7,200). He only allowed two runs his last time out against the Dodgers, but his 8.80 FIP in that game says all I need to know. With that in mind, I am loving using Rendon against him, who has a .398 wOBA, a .283 ISO and three of his eight home runs against lefties. While the Angels are a stronger club against righties than they are lefties, Rendon has been one of their best bats in this situation.
Save Big by Drafting
Adalberto Mondesi, KCR at DET, $3,600 — Mondesi finally decided to show up in 2020 and he’s been doing it in a big way. Over his last 10 games, he’s averaging a ridiculous 15.2 DKFP with a double, four home runs, 11 RBI and eight (!) stolen bases. Now he gets to face off against Matthew Boyd ($8,000), who continues to struggle on the mound. Boyd has allowed a putrid .447 wOBA to righties, the result of RHBs hitting 12 of the 13 home runs he’s allowed this season. The majority of Mondesi’s power has come against lefties with a .286 ISO compared to just a .072 ISO against righties.
Favorite Team To Stack
NYM vs. PHI (vs. Jake Arrieta) — Arrieta was able to skate through his start against the Mets earlier this month, allowing only two runs despite seven hits. Now he faces them at Citizens Bank Park, where he’s been tagged for 11 runs on 16 hits through just 12 innings — giving him a .340 wOBA. The Mets have been hitting well lately and their diverse lineup of lefties and righties can really spell trouble for Arrieta, who has been exhibiting some shaky command and a lack of strikeouts this season.
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