We’re finally here, the final day of the US Open. One of the two men playing today will capture their maiden Grand Slam and become one of a handful of players who have won a major tournament since the “Big 3” began dominating the sport. There’s just one match today, but I still see multiple bets that have value on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Zverev +5.5 Games (-117), Zverev ML (+310)
Let me throw two prices out at you: +106, +171. Those were Sascha Zverev’s odds of beating Dominic Thiem the past two times they played, both on hardcourts. Bookmakers gave the German a 48.5% chance of beating Thiem at the Nitto ATP Finals last November, then a 36.9% chance of winning in this year’s Australian Open semifinal.
With that said, I think +310 is a bit high for Zverev. It does make sense why he’d be a bigger underdog this time around, having served incredibly poorly over his past two matches, but I think there is simply too much recency bias. He limited his errors — both on serve and with his groundstrokes — before hitting the quarterfinal stage, so there is a body of work in New York to be somewhat confident in. He also looked very, very strong in his last two sets against Pablo Carreno-Busta and was dominant in the ground game.
Zverev comes into the final having played more sets than anyone to make the final in the past 15 years and has played four more hours of tennis than Thiem. I do believe that’s a little misleading, with Thiem probably playing more physical sets of tennis and Zverev not exerting as much effort but it’s still worth noting that fatigue could set in for both of these players. Thiem is the fitter of the two players and played a ton of exhibition tennis during the shutdown, so he should survive a five-setter if it gets there.
In terms of play styles, this is going to be a big change of pace for Thiem, who in the semis played a cerebral assassin in Daniil Medvedev who lulls opponents to sleep with consistent, flat groundstrokes before injecting pace. Zverev will bring pace throughout, which could leave Thiem to play a lot more defense early on. I see an adjustment period here and while Thiem should ultimately solve Zverev, an opponent he’s played nine times, I still believe Zverev takes one of the first two sets, as he did in their previous meeting.
I see this match going four or five sets and potentially to multiple tiebreaks, so I think the game spread is a good bet here. I think the moneyline is worth a sprinkle just because I think it’s about 50 cents too high and it could very well come down to the final set. This match will drag out for a few hours, with the fitter Thiem likely to prevail on the back of his experience in Grand Slam finals combined with his stamina. Zverev is a live dog here and should keep it close, so that’s where I’m recommending you put your money.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jetsfan196) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.