There’s just one NBA game available on Sunday’s slate, but that doesn’t mean we can’t still look for some betting value. The Nuggets will be squaring off with the Clippers in Game 6 of the Western Conference semis. If the Clippers win, it will set up a matchup vs. the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals. If the Nuggets win it will set up a decisive winner-take-all Game 7.
Let’s break down some of my favorite bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for Sunday’s NBA slate.
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Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Clippers -8.5 (-110)
The Nuggets were able to survive in Game 5 thanks to an improbable run in the second half. The Clippers went ice cold, shooting just 34.8% from the field and 28.0% from three-point range, while the Nuggets shot 61.1% from the field and 56.2% from three-point range. Jamal Murray made all three of his three-point attempts in the second half, while Paul Millsap shot 4-for-5 from the field.
Expect the shooting numbers to normalize for both teams in Game 6. The Clippers thoroughly dominated the early part of Game 5 and they have been drastically better than the Nuggets for the majority of this series.
The Clippers also fit a nice trend for this contest. They’re coming off a loss and are favorites vs. a lower seed and teams in a comparable situation have historically gone 202-167-10 against the spread since 2006.
Under 213.5 points (-108)
These two teams combined for 116 points in their last game but I’m not expecting a repeat performance. They’ve played at a snail-like pace over the past two games – posting marks of 88.0 and 93.6 – and I doubt we’ll see a spike in tempo in an elimination game. These teams combined for 181 points in Game 4 and 100 points in the first half of Game 5, so this total definitely feels inflated.
If the Nuggets’ offense comes back to reality in Game 6, the under has the potential to hit pretty comfortably.
Ivica Zubac rebounds
Over 7.5 (-121)
Let’s wrap things up with a prop. Zubac is playing more minutes as this series progresses to try and combat the size of Nikola Jokic. He played 29.7 minutes in Game 4 and followed that up with 31.6 minutes in Game 5. Unsurprisingly, that increase in playing time has led to a boost in production on the glass: He grabbed nine rebounds in both contests.
Jokic should see another large workload in an elimination game, so expect Zubac to be out there defending him. As long as he sees around 30 minutes, he shouldn’t have much trouble pulling down at least eight boards. The Nuggets were a merely average team in terms of rebound rate this season and Zubac leads the Clippers with a rebound rate of 21.3%.
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $100K Shootaround [$20K to 1st] (LAC vs DEN)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mlamarca) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.