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MLB Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Baseball DFS Predictions, Betting Odds for August 6

Steve Buchanan breaks down Thursday’s DraftKings MLB slate with pitching and hitting analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

The start time for these games in the 2020 season have been all over the place and thus, tonight’s slate will be locking at 6:05 p.m. ET, so make sure your lineups are set and ready to go earlier than usual. On the plus side, the early start time does make this into a six-game slate, not a four-game if it began at its usual 7:05 p.m. ET.

This piece will cover the main slate, so let’s get into all the information. As always, feel free to follow me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Set your DraftKings lineups here: MLB $250K Relay Throw [$50K to 1st]

Game Notes

Biggest Moneyline Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Tyler Chatwood, $9,400, CHC (-177) at KCR (+150) — What a world we live in where Chatwood is pitching for the biggest favorite on the slate. Normally a pitcher we’d love to pick on, Chatwood has been pitching on a completely different level so far this season. Yes, it’s only been two starts and it’s been an easy schedule but that easy schedule continues tonight! Chatwood has faced a total of 47 hitters thus far and has struck out 19 of them, good for a 40 K%! His command has been good with just an 8.5 BB% and his 2.05 FIP truly shows that he’s pitching well. In an unbelievable turn of events, he has to be considered one of if not the top pitching option tonight. Until he shows otherwise, Chatwood is not the guy we’ve been used to seeing, at least in the early part of this season.

Other notable favorites: Jordan Montgomery ($7,800; -167) vs. Phillies, Touki Toussaint ($8,300; -141) vs. Blue Jays

Highest Projected Total

NYY (-167) vs. PHI (+143) 9.5 runs — The Yankees sport a 5.5 team total in their matchup against the Phillies and Zach Eflin ($6,900), who is expected to make his 2020 debut. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him on a pitch count, so this also could be an early game into the Phillies’ bullpen, who have the third-highest FIP at 5.05 to go with just a 23.1 K% and a 1.39 WHIP. Eflin really struggled against lefties in particular, posting a .356 wOBA with a 6.24 FIP and 17 of his 28 home runs allowed. The Yankees are very right-handed heavy but someone like Brett Gardner ($3,800) could be a good value. With likely a low workload on tap, I still think a Yankees stack is in order, even with good numbers against righties for Eflin.

Other notable team totals: Cubs (5.5) vs. Royals, White Sox (4.5) vs. Brewers

Curious about when major leagues and events will return? Check out our DraftKings Sports Calendar for the latest updates.

Weather Concerns

Clear night of baseball!

Splits to Start

Note: This section will show stats for 2019 until Aug. 6.

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Wade LeBlanc, .369, 5.93
Tyler Chatwood, .357, 4.10
Zach Eflin, .356, 6.24

Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Gio Gonzalez, .213, 3.31
Jordan Yamamoto, .252, 4.90
Zac Gallen, .287, 3.87

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Carlos Carrasco, .364, 4.03
Wade LeBlanc, .356, 5.35
Gio Gonzalez, .328, 4.26

Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Luis Castillo, .256, 3.38
Tyler Chatwood, .261, 4.40
Touki Toussaint, .288 3.62

Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Luis Castillo, CIN at CLE, $9,500 — On paper, this looks like a daunting matchup for Castillo against the Indians on the road. However, looking at the numbers, the Indians have hardly been much of a threat for anyone offensively. It’s hard to believe in the early going of the season this club is dead last in ISO at .081 and second to last in wOBA at .254. They’re also in the Top 10 for the highest K% at 25.7%, which is seventh in the league. Castillo has logged 17 strikeouts in his first two starts and six innings in each, making him someone I’m looking to target against this struggling offense.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

J.T. Realmuto, PHI vs. NYY, $4,700 — Realmuto has some big power against lefties and tonight will face Jordan Montgomery ($7,800). He’s only faced the Red Sox thus far and went 5.2 innings allowing one run on five hits with four strikeouts. He has a much tough matchup this time around and will have to deal with Realmuto, who had a .248 ISO against lefties overall and and a .243 against them at home. He’s already gotten off to a fast start this season and has a 40% hard-hit rate under his belt, making him someone I’m looking to pay up for on this small slate.

Save Big by Drafting

Eduardo Escobar, ARI vs. HOU, $3,800 — This is more of an upside play rather than a matchup play for Escobar. He’s facing off against Brandon Bielak ($7,500), whom we’ve only seen through 5.1 innings in the majors. He’s walked three in that span but also has struck out six while allowing a run on four hits. Bielak has posted great numbers in the minors but Escobar also had good numbers against righties at home. Last season he put together a .371 wOBA with a .276 ISO with 12 of his 35 home runs. In hopefully a sign of things to come, Escobar posted 20 DKFP going 2-for-4 with a home run, two RBI and two runs scored.

Favorite Team To Stack

CHC at KCR (Brad Keller) — There aren’t a ton of stacking options I’m in love with for tonight so we’ll stick with one of the teams that has a projected total of 5.5 runs on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Cubs will face Keller, who is making his 2020 debut at Kauffman Stadium. To his credit, Keller had some decent numbers at home with a .279 wOBA and a 4.15 FIP, but we’re not expecting him to go deep into this game. The Royals bullpen has not been good, allowing a 4.64 FIP, a 1.4 HR/9 and a 38.1% hard-hit rate.

Set your DraftKings lineups here: MLB $250K Relay Throw [$50K to 1st]

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