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NBA Picks: DraftKings Sportsbook Pick’em Prop Pool Predictions for September 1

Zach Thompson breaks down the NBA Pick’em Prop Pool on DraftKings Sportsbook, which locks at 8:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday, September 1.

Denver Nuggets v Utah Jazz - Game Six Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

Tuesday’s NBA schedule has a pair of games on the slate, but the focus of the DraftKings Sportsbook Pick’em Pool is the final game of the first round. Get ready for the first Game 7 of the 2020 playoffs, and this game shapes up to be a great one. The Jazz and Nuggets tip off at 8:30 p.m. ET, and each team has been trading big games from their star players throughout the first six games of the series.

To add even more sauce to this tasty Game 7 matchup, DraftKings Sportsbook is hosting an NBA Pick’em Pool with a $10 entry fee for a seat in the qualifier for the $2 Million Pro Football Pick’em National Championship. If you live in NJ, NH or WV, make your predictions for the NBA Pick’em Pool here. For more DraftKings Sportsbook pool action, check out DraftKings Sportsbook Pools.

DraftKings users can also get in on the NBA action by betting on DraftKings Sportsbook or by downloading the DK Sportsbook app.

Sign up for the DraftKings Pro Football Pick’Em National Championship and compete to win a grand prize of at least $1 million! Head here to the DraftKings Pro Football Pick’Em National Championship page for all the details!

Utah Jazz vs. Denver Nuggets: Game Result

We start with the simplest prop of all. Who wins? While the Jazz looked dominant in their wins in Game 2, Game 3 and Game 4, Denver staved off elimination in Game 5 and Game 6 behind monster games from Jamal Murray. Murray has scored 50, 42 and 50 points in his past three games and taken both his game and the Nuggets’ team to the next level. The Nuggets also got Gary Harris back in Game 6, and even though he was limited to 21 minutes, his return will give Denver a significant boost on the defensive end. Utah’s offense has struggled aside from Donovan Mitchell and is definitely feeling the absence of Bojan Bogdanovic. With Murray on fire, the Nuggets have too much clicking on the offensive end, and I think they’ll complete the comeback and pull out the win in Game 7.

Choice: Denver Nuggets

Utah Jazz vs. Denver Nuggets: 1st Half Result

With the lone exception of Game 4, the team that has won the game has been the team leading at halftime in five of the first six games. While I love the scoring Donovan Mitchell provides, I just don’t think he’s getting enough help to overcome Murray and Nikola Jokic. I expect Denver to jump out early and play from ahead most of the game.

Choice: Denver Nuggets

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Utah Jazz vs. Denver Nuggets: Total Points

The over/under for this game is set at 229.5. It’s a pretty high total overall and the over has reached only in the overtime contest in Game 1 and the back-and-forth contest in Game 4. While I’d love extra time or that kind of high-scoring contest, it seems like a lot of different things have to be in place on both sides for that kind of point explosion to happen. While the over would be more fun, I actually think the under is the much stronger play.

Choice: Under 229.5

Who will score more points?

This is a head-to-head matchup between the two scoring guards, Jamal Murray and Donovan Mitchell. Mitchell dominated this matchup early in the series and would have won this prop in each of the first four games in the series. Murray would have taken the two most recent games though, 42-to-30 in Game 5 and 51-to-44 in Game 6. Both these players can go off as we’ve already seen this series, so either could take this matchup. I’m going to go with the hot hand, though, especially since Harris will be back to make life more difficult for Spida.

Choice: Jamal Murray

Will any player score more than 45 points?

The chances of this happening in any given game are pretty low, but in this series with the two guards mentioned above, the percent definitely takes a jump. In three games, the answer would have been yes, with Murray scoring more than 45 in Game 4 and Game 6 while Mitchell scored more in Game 1 and joined him in Game 4. Remember that Game 1 did take overtime, though, and Game 4 was more high-scoring than I expect this game to be. With both teams focused and facing elimination, the defensive intensity will likely be stepped up, so I’m actually think it’ll be less likely that one of them goes off. Nikola Jokic could also be an outside threat to get there, but probably not since Rudy Gobert has slowed him down a little bit. Both stars have the potential to get there, but I think they’ll come up just short.

Choice: No

Will Nikola Jokic record a triple-double?

Speaking of Jokic, he hasn’t had a triple-double in the series and hasn’t actually been that close. The points have been no problem, but he has been held under 10 rebounds in four straight games and under 10 assists in every single game in this series. I think Jokic will have a good game, but asking him to get a triple-double seems like a stretch.

Choice: No

Who will have the most assists in this game?

The options here are Nikola Jokic, Mike Conley, Donovan Mitchell, Jamal Murray, any other player or 2 or more players to Tie. Neither team usually gets a ton of assists, but it is usually the stars leading the way. Murray would have won this prop in Game 1, Mitchell in Game 2, another player in Game 3 (Joe Ingles), it would have been a tie in Game 4, Murray in Game 5 and Jokic in Game 6. So to recap, this prop has pretty much been all over the place. Mitchell and Murray are both very solid options here, but I also think it could easily be a tie since I don’t think anyone will run away and put up double-digit assists.

Choice: 2 or more players to Tie

Who will have the most rebounds in this game?

The options in this prop are Nikola Jokic, Paul Millsap, Michael Porter Jr., Rudy Gobert, any other player, or 2 or more players to Tie. Here I think there’s a little more clarity than with assists. Gobert has led the Jazz in every game but Game 1. He would have won this prop twice, although Porter would have taken the win in Game 6 with his 12 rebounds. A tie is always a possibility here, but I think Gobert’s consistency makes him the way to go here.

Choice: Rudy Gobert

Highest scoring quarter?

Typically, I like to go with the first or the fourth quarter in these props since teams try to get out to a fast start and sometimes the end includes extra foul shots for one team or the other. Usually the starters log more minutes in the first or fourth quarter as well. While I do think Denver will lead most of the way and get the win, I think it will be close enough for both teams to be scoring a lot at the end in crunch time.

Choice: 4th quarter

Win Margin?

Hopefully we get a close game for entertainment purposes. So far the margin of victory has been 10, 19, 37, 2, 10 and 8. I don’t think we’ll get a blowout here since both sides will be giving it everything they have. I’m also not sure that it will be in the lowest bracket here either. I think the two most likely options are 5-9 or 10-14. It has already been right on that line at 10 two times in the series already. I’m going to go slightly under that margin and put this in the same range as Game 6.

Choice: 5-9

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is z.thompson) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.

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