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Happy Trade Deadline Day!
With the deadline set for 4 p.m. ET, it’ll be extremely important to keep up with the news as players will be on the move and it’ll likely be to the Padres. Anyways, let’s take a look at what tonight offers with a very top-heavy pitching selection on this seven-game slate.
As always, feel free to follow me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
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Game Notes
Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Shane Bieber, $11,000, CLE (-240) vs. KCR (+200) — No one is surprised that the future AL Cy Young Award winner is the biggest favorite on the night, as he gets set to take on the Royals for the second time this season. Little did we know in his first start against Kansas City that we’d be on the brink of seeing an incredible run by Bieber, as he allowed no runs though six shutout innings while striking out 14, which is currently his season-high. In that game, he produced an 18.6% swing-and-miss rate including a 33.3% swing-and-miss rate outside the strike zone. Overall, he’s produced a remarkable 43% K% and just a 5.1% BB%. The Royals remain just outside the Top 10 in K% against righties at 24.5%, making this yet another enticing spot to take the Biebs, of course, if the weather holds off.
Other notable favorites: Max Fried ($9,200; -190) vs. Red Sox, Gerrit Cole ($10,000; -152) vs. Rays
Highest Projected Total
SDP (-108, 6.5 runs) vs. COL (-105, 5.5 runs) 12.5 runs — Another massive total at Coors Field this evening, as it feels like the Padres and Rockies have been playing each other forever. The Padres are razor-thin favorites as of this morning, with Garrett Richards ($7,500) taking the hill against German Márquez ($7,800). On the surface, it looks as if Márquez has been bombed at home thus far but of the 15 runs he’s allowed, 10 of them came against the Royals. I wouldn’t call that a reason to play him, as the Padres’ offense remains one of the best in the league against righties, sporting a .368 wOBA with a .250 ISO.
I’m very, very interested in seeing what the ownership will look like for this game. We have three pitching options over $10K taking the mound with Bieber, Cole and Lucas Giolito ($10,400), who is coming off a no-hitter against the Pirates. Even trying to get one of these guys in with a Coors stack is nearly impossible. If I had to guess, the ownership is going to lie with the pitchers, so Coors could be lower than you’d normally expect.
Other notable team totals: PHI (5.5) vs. WAS, ATL (5.5) vs. BOS
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Weather Concerns
CLE @ KCR - This is a very important game to watch regardless of if you’re interested or not. Storms could be over the ballpark and would likely cause this game to be postponed, meaning the ownership that was once saved for Bieber would move down to Coors, Cole and Giolito. Keep an eye on this one.
SDP @ COL - Not a huge threat but it likely won’t be a dry game in Colorado. It doesn’t look to be enough to cause it to be postponed, but this is 2020.
WAS @ PHI -Same as Colorado. Nothing overly concerning but I’ll believe anything at this point of my life. Rain will be in the area, so check weather reports closer to first pitch.
Splits to Start
Note: This section will now show the combined stats from 2019 and 2020
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Eric Lauer .386, 5.07
Trevor Williams, .369, 5.06
Garrett Richards, .368, 5.80
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Tyler Glasnow, .216, 1.70
Lucas Giolito, .250, 3.27
Gerrit Cole, .262, 3.16
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Colten Brewer, .383, 5.46
Trevor Williams, .338, 5.22
Erick Fedde, .323, 5.56
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Gerrit Cole, .228, 2.68
Shane Bieber, .272, 2.95
Brad Keller, .286 4.04
Lineup Starters
Pitcher to Build Around
Shane Bieber, CLE vs. KCR, $11,000 — I know it’s the super obvious play and anyone could have told you to play Bieber tonight but honestly, just play Bieber. He’s pitching out of his mind right now and until we start to see some regression, which his 1.67 FIP is showing we may not see anytime soon, Biebs is the play. Sorry for being boring.
Heavy Hitter to Pay For
Eloy Jimenez, CWS vs. MIN, $5,000 — Jimenez is taking on Rich Hill ($7,300) this evening, who has a shown some shaky command in the early going with an 11.8% BB%, a 4.32 FIP and a 46% hard-hit rate allowed through his first three starts. He faces a very good hitting ball club against lefties, including Jimenez. Entering this game, Jimenez has a .402 wOBA with a .343 ISO against lefties. Over his past 10 games, he’s averaging 12.5 DKFP with four home runs, nine RBI and three doubles hitting in the heart of the White Sox order. Also, he wears his jersey like this, so you know he means business.
Save Big by Drafting
Andrew McCutchen, PHI vs. WAS, $3,900 — McCutchen is crushing the ball lately, entering this game averaging 13.4 DKFP over his past 10 games with three home runs, two doubles and 12 RBI. He has even stolen two bases in that span, giving him three on the year. He faces off against Erick Fedde ($5,200), who sports some really poor numbers against righties. On the season, Fedde has a .407 wOBA with a 7.13 FIP allowed. If you want to combine those numbers back to the start of 2019, it doesn’t get much better with a .323 wOBA and a 5.56 FIP. Hitting at the top of the Phillies’ order with a 5.5 run projection could bring a good night for Cutch.
Favorite Team To Stack
ATL at BOS (vs. Colten Brewer) —All the Red Sox have is fill-in starters and Brewer ($5,400) is another example of that. He has made 10 appearances overall, three of which were starts. Specifically looking at those three starts, he sports a .397 wOBA with a 7.39 FIP and a 14.3% BB%. Not exactly the type of numbers you want to see against a Braves team that has a .356 wOBA, a .210 ISO and a 122 wRC+ against righties.
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