The NBA is back in full swing and Monday brings us a four-game betting card, spaced out throughout the afternoon and evening. I’m not in love with Monday’s card but after sifting through, here’s what jumps out to me on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Indiana Pacers vs. Miami Heat: MIA -6 (-110)
The Pacers have some pride but the Heat have just been dominating them all season. Miami is 6-0 in the meaningful matchups they’ve played, including 5-1 ATS. Miami is 3-0 ATS in this series, winning each game by at least nine points. It’s kind of a square play to just keep going back to the Heat but the Pacers are clearly struggling in this matchup. Excluding the last game of the seeding round when everyone sat out, the Heat have won four bubble matchups against Indy by an average of 13 points. I’m not expecting them to let their foot off the gas with the sweep on the line. Getting some extra time to prep for a Bucks squad that they were up 22 points on without Jimmy Butler and Goran Dragic (before collapsing), could really help the Heat’s series outlook in the next round.
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Portland Trail Blazers: LAL/LAC ML Parlay (-120)
The Lakers have been taking care of business since getting upset by the Blazers in Game 1 and I think the momentum continues to carry into Game 4. The Lakers came out a bit flat in Game 3 but Anthony Davis had one of his worst halves of the season. He turned things around to dominate the second half and help the Lakers comfortably get the win. Defense has been the key here for the Lakers. It took a historically poor shooting performance to drop Game 1, which I’m not expecting to see again.
Meanwhile, the Clippers are in their ultimate bounce-back spot. They choked away a 21-point lead in Game 4 and couldn’t cool down Luka Doncic in a performance for the ages, even on a bad ankle. Look for the better team to gather themselves and lock in for 48 minutes in a crucial Game 5. As magical as Game 4 was from Dallas, Luka and Kristaps Porzingis are still banged up and it took Tim Hardaway Jr., Seth Curry and Trey Burke playing out of their minds to win on a buzzer-beater. The Clips are an insane 21-3 following a loss this season. Clippers roll on Tuesday to complete the parlay.
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Houston Rockets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Luguentz Dort: OVER 13.5 points, rebounds & assists (-103)
Dort was injured to start this series and only played 25 minutes in Game 2. However, he was arguably the key to a Game 3 victory, matching up with James Harden and giving him legitimate issues. The strong defense earned him 36 minutes and should give him a large role down the stretch in this series. Dort had nine points, eight boards and an assist in Game 3, good for a total of 18 on this number but he also did so on just 3-for-10 shooting, including 0-of-6 from downtown. Knock down a couple of those and this should be an easy over if the minutes remain.
NBA Draft Props
1st Overall Pick: LaMelo Ball (+280)
The value is quickly fading with the lottery putting the draft on everyone’s mind but this is still way too cheap for Ball to be selected at the top of October’s draft. When we started discussing the lottery on Thursday, Ball was +450 to be the top pick. There are safer picks that we got to see play much more in college, leaving Ball as a bit more of a mystery but I don’t think there’s any denying that he has the highest ceiling in this class. As the draft approaches, that should continue to be reflected in the odds. We also now know who owns the top pick — the Minnesota Timberwolves should go for a home run here. Ball’s size allows him and D’Angelo Russell to both play a combo-guard position in the same backcourt, making the pick a good fit.
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