Monday’s slate is a little light on baseball action with only nine games to choose from. The action gets underway with the Rays vs. the Blue Jays at 3:10 p.m. ET and concludes with the Diamondbacks vs. the Rockies at 9:40 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into three of my favorite bets for Monday’s slate.
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago Cubs:
Under 9.5 runs (-113)
This is a pretty interesting matchup between one of the best teams in baseball and one of the worst.
The Tigers are taking on right-hander Alec Mills, and Detroit has been one of the worst offensive teams in baseball vs. right-handers this season. The Tigers rank just 27th in wRC+ vs. right-handers this season and they’ve also posted the highest strikeout rate in those matchups. Mills isn’t a great pitcher but he isn’t a terrible one either, as he’s pitched to a 4.76 ERA and 4.86 FIP through his first four starts this season. He should be able to limit the Tigers’ bats in this matchup.
On the other hand, the Tigers are sending one of the best prospects in baseball to the mound in Casey Mize. He struggled a bit in his first few career MLB starts but his advanced metrics suggest better things moving forward. He racked up seven strikeouts over just 4 1/3 innings, resulting in a 1.27 xFIP. It’s obviously a very small sample size but Mize is someone who projects to be successful given his pedigree.
Texas Rangers vs. Oakland A’s:
Under 7.5 runs (-103)
This is another game where the scoring should be pretty minimal.
The Rangers will hand the ball to Lance Lynn, who is one of the most underrated starters in baseball. He posted a 10.63 K/9 and a 3.67 ERA in 2019 and he’s followed that up with a 1.37 ERA through his first six starts this season.
The A’s will turn to Jesus Luzardo, who has monster upside in the major leagues. He was considered the No. 5 prospect in all of baseball heading into the season and he’s pitched to a 3.67 ERA through his first 27.0 innings. The Rangers rank just 27th in wRC+ vs. left-handers this season, so Luzardo should be able to find success in this matchup.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds:
Reds ML (-136)
Trevor Bauer will draw the start today for the Reds and he’s been arguably the best pitcher in baseball this season. He’s pitched to a 0.68 ERA and 1.92 FIP through his first four starts, and he’s also averaged a K/9 of 14.01. He’s definitely gotten a bit lucky – he’s posted a .140 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) – but he can still be an elite option even with a bit of regression.
It’s hard not to like Bauer in this matchup as such a small favorite.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mlamarca) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.