Though the sample sizes will always be a little strange in 2020, we’re starting to reach a point in the season where teams are locking in their identities. Soon, the narrative surrounding a club won’t be that they’ve gotten off to a bad start with the bats, it’ll be that they simply straight-up can not hit. Obviously, those are the types of lineups you’ll want to avoid getting exposure to in DFS on DraftKings.
Still, with a little wiggle room remaining, allow me to offer a professional opinion for Friday night’s DraftKings slate. Here are five offenses you can trust to stack this evening.
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1. Los Angeles Angels
While the Angels have struggled to a disappointing 8-18 record to begin 2020, most of the team’s failures can be placed on it’s pitching staff, as the offense has actually been relatively productive. I would assume that trend continues this evening in a battle with Mike Fiers ($8,600). I’m just at the point where I’m willing to almost blindly stack against the 35-year-old every single time he takes the mound. Fiers definitely looks like his best days are behind him, as he’s surrendered 2.45 opponent home runs per nine while maintaining a microscopic strikeout rate of 9.8% across five outings. This is all happening simultaneously to Fiers losing significant zip on his fastball, with his four-seam velocity down to 88.1 mph this year from 90.8 mph in 2019.
Players to Consider
Mike Trout ($6,200)
Anthony Rendon ($5,300)
Shohei Ohtani ($4,500)
Tommy La Stella ($4,300)
David Fletcher ($4,100)
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2. Boston Red Sox
The dream is starting to die for the Orioles. After beginning the season with a surprising record of 11-7, Baltimore has lost five games in a row and six of its last seven overall. As you might expect, it’s been the pitching that’s let the team down as of late, with the Orioles sporting an ugly 6.47 ERA over that exact span of time. It’s a trend I don’t see coming to an end on Friday, either. Even if John Means’ ($5,400) begins throwing more like the guy who possesses a 3.01 expected ERA as opposed to his actual 10.57 ERA, Brandon Hyde has already announced that the LHP will be on a pitch count. He’ll be piggybacked by the underwhelming Jorge Lopez ($5,500), in a game where Baltimore’s bullpen will probably have to cover six innings of work. That doesn’t sound appealing.
Players to Consider
J.D. Martinez ($5,800)
Rafael Devers ($5,200)
Xander Bogaerts ($5,100)
Christian Vazquez ($4,800)
Alex Verdugo ($4,400)
3. Cleveland Indians
It’s unclear how deep Michael Fulmer ($5,700) will be able to work into tonight’s scheduled start versus Cleveland, but his presence on the mound for even a moment is enough to be enticed by the potential of the Indians’ offense. So far in 2020, 428 different pitchers have faced at least 25 batters. Of that massive group of people, only six have a higher expected opponent wOBA than Fulmer (.478). Heck, the right-hander has almost conceded more home runs (5) in his three starts than he’s generated strikeouts (6). This really shouldn’t be all that shocking, as Fulmer’s average fastball velocity is down to 93.6 mph this season from 96.6 mph in 2018. He’s simply not yet back to his pre-Tommy John form.
Players to Consider
Jose Ramirez ($5,400)
Francisco Lindor ($5,300)
Franmil Reyes ($4,600)
Cesar Hernandez ($4,500)
Carlos Santana ($4,400)
4. Milwaukee Brewers
Let me be clear about this right off the top: This is less an endorsement of the Brewers’ bats than it is a suggestion to take advantage of Chad Kuhl’s ($6,900) deficiencies. Though the RHP has been able to strike out exactly a third of the 54 batters he’s faced so far in 2020, when opponents have made contact against Kuhl, it’s generally been of an amazing quality. To wit, a whopping 18.8% of the batted ball events that Kuhl has surrendered this season have been barrels — the seventh-highest mark of the 287 pitchers with at least 25 BBEs to their name. On top of that, we have a Pirates bullpen that currently owns an ugly 5.66 ERA and 13.3% walk rate. Milwaukee is going to score some runs.
Players to Consider
Christian Yelich ($5,100)
Keston Hiura ($4,700)Ryan Braun ($3,900)
Ben Gamel ($2,900)
EDITOR’S NOTE: Braun is not in the lineup for tonight’s game vs. the Pirates.
5. Minnesota Twins
There might not be a single person on the planet less excited about the prospect of facing the Twins than Danny Duffy ($6,700). On Friday — for the third-straight start — the veteran left-hander will square off with one of baseball’s most potent offensive attacks. I should point out that Duffy’s survived his first two encounters with Minnesota relatively unscathed, even allowing just two hits across five innings of work back on Aug. 15. Still, we’re talking about an extreme fly ball pitcher going up against a lineup that led the league with 307 home runs in 2019, and doing so on the third occasion in two weeks. We hear analysts constantly discuss a pitcher’s opponent OPS spiking the third time through a batting order; how about the seventh time?
Players to Consider
Nelson Cruz ($5,700)
Max Kepler ($4,700)
Miguel Sano ($4,700)
Eddie Rosario ($4,000)
Jake Cave ($3,100)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.