The rankings below are based on a mixture of expected output and DraftKings’ NASCAR salaries for that day. The ordering is not based on the highest projected fantasy totals, but rather by value of each driver.
1. Brett Moffitt ($10,000) - Passing the leader in any of the three NASCAR series is comparable to walking into Mordor. One does not simply do it. Last year, there was one green flag pass for the lead at Dover and it was enabled by lap traffic. Moffitt was great at Dover last year, he’s been great recently, and he’s in the catbird seat.
2. Sheldon Creed ($9,100) - “I tear up a lot of [expletive].” Creed’s victory lane speech was sincere at Daytona. He is a checkers or wreckers driver. Last year at Dover, Creed led the second most laps, but pit road games forced him to restart in a precarious spot, and he wrecked.
3. Johnny Sauter ($10,600) - It’s Johnny Dover this weekend. He needs a win to make the playoffs, but the good news is that he’s won the last three races at Dover. He even overcame a failure to maintain speed penalty in his last win at Dover.
4. Carson Hocevar ($5,100) - If it wasn’t for the late race cautions, Hocevar was going to earn a top-10 in his 2020 Truck Series debut. He’s not a young phenom, but he has been solid in the ARCA series. The only reason a GMS truck should be priced this low is if you or Mark Smith are driving.
5. Sam Mayer ($5,600) - Last year, Mayer wrecked in two of his three races, but Bristol and Martinsville are challenging tracks. Mayer was contending for the win at Martinsville until the race turned into a wreck fest. He’s coming in hot this weekend, having won the last two oval races in the ARCA series.
6. Chandler Smith ($9,300) - This is the week to jump on the Chandler Smith bandwagon. At Kentucky he suffered damage in a rain shortened race and Michigan was a plate race. Dover fits his ARCA and Truck Series experience. The No. 51 KBM truck is a threat to win this weekend.
7. Austin Hill ($11,200) - Never has a driver been so dominant, and completely ignored. Other than a mechanical failure at Texas, Austin Hill has a top-5 driver rating in every race this season (11 races). His truck is fast and he knows how to drive it.
8. Matt Crafton ($10,300) - The cream has risen to the top, and the expected drivers have settled into the top 5 every week. Crafton is one of the obvious championship contenders. He’s finished 4th or better in five of the last six races.
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9. Zane Smith ($8,500) - The rankings article before Michigan audaciously proclaimed that rookie Zane Smith is a favorite to win the championship. He proceeded to win at Michigan. Don’t expect it to be pretty or dominant. There will be asterisks, but there will be wins.
10. Bayley Currey ($6,900) - His name has been tarnished by driving poor equipment in the Xfinity series, but on occasion he overcomes his inferior equipment and shows his talent. This will be his 73rd NASCAR race, but only his 4th race in good equipment.
11. Derek Kraus ($8,000) - Despite his road course experience, Kraus struggled last week. Forget about it, he will, so DFS players should follow suit. The next Truck Series road race is a year away. At the ovals, the rookie is averaging an 11th place finish.
12. Ben Rhodes ($8,700) - In ten non-plate races, Rhodes has ten top-10s. The problem is that he’s averaging 37 points per race. That’s not going to win anyone $10,000. He has topped 50 points twice, and that’s what he’ll need to do Friday night, but that will require a 2nd place finish.
13. Christian Eckes ($9,700) - Rudy Fugle’s worst weekend ever was last year at Dover. There were gremlins in the truck and they could not get the setup correct. That could be worrisome for Eckes, but those gremlins could be the product of Brandon Jones driving the truck last year.
14. Ty Majeski ($7,500) - Although he finished 32nd last weekend, he has the 15th-best driver rating. Majeski is a 10th to 15th place driver every week and a great value play this weekend. He’ll go under owned because there are even better value plays at Dover.
15. Todd Gilliland ($8,900) - The super secret stats favor Todd Gilliland. DraftKings would say that pit road is the race within the race, and Gilliland is winning that race. He’s tied for the best time on pit road and has the most top 10 pit stops this season.
16. Timmy Hill ($6,400) - This is a risky play and strictly a contrarian play. If DFS players choose to avoid the chalk, then Hill can work. First, the obvious value plays need to fail, then Hill needs to safely guide his truck to 20th. That’s asking a lot from his small team Truck, but it’s not asking a lot from a talented driver that understands the mission.
17. Grant Enfinger ($8,400) - Unless Enfinger has a bad week, he’ll always start inside the top 10. Unless he wins, which has been very rare in his career, then he doesn’t work in DFS. Enfinger has been able to fit when he’s priced below $8,000.
18. J.J. Yeley ($5,500) - File this one under the category “too cute.” There are several obvious value options on the board and those drivers will soak up a ton of ownership. Yeley is the dangerous pivot. The play works like this - Yeley safely turns lap and misfortune strikes the obvious plays. Sounds crazy, but the obvious plays are inexperienced rookies, so the Yeley pivot is not insane.
19. Dawson Cram ($6,500) - It’s clear cut this week. There are good plays and bad plays. Some drivers just don’t work, and that allows Cram to slide into the rankings. He’s a decent young driver in weak equipment, but he’s starting dead last. Dover is called the Monster Mile for a reason. This wreck can be filled with carnage, and taking the punt starting dead last is on the table.
20. Spencer Davis ($7,400) - He’s earned four top-15 finishes this season. He’s not the greatest driver and he’s not in the greatest truck, but sometimes things go his way. If there is a late race caution, and Davis lines up on the outside, he could bust into the optimal lineup.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.