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Starting the week off with an 11-game slate is helping me get through the Monday blues. I dunno, I woke up this morning and was not pleased it was Monday. Ever have one of those mornings? Of course, you have. Good. So let’s both be moody and read my Cheat Sheet.
As always, feel free to follow me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
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Game Notes
Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Ross Stripling, $7,900, LAD (-315) vs. SEA (+260) — Talk about a big ol’ line for the Dodgers tonight! It’s not even as if Stripling has been dominant on the mound because he hasn’t, allowing a 5.17 FIP with a 50% hard-hit rate and just a 21.1 K%. I think it’s more of the fact that the Mariners’ offense has come to a screeching halt, scoring just four total runs in the three-game weekend series against the Astros. It also doesn’t hurt that the Dodgers have scored at least six runs in five straight games. Against righties, the Mariners have just a .294 wOBA with a .138 ISO and a 24 K%. Is it a smash spot for Stripling? Not really, but he certainly is in one of the better spots in what is a relatively weak pitching pool.
Other notable favorites: Matt Wisler ($6,500; -200 - Wisler is opening this game) vs. Braves, Griffin Canning ($8,200; -182) vs. Giants
Highest Projected Total
WAS (+128, 4.5 runs) vs. ATL (-148, 5.5 runs) 10.5 runs — On a slate that doesn’t feature a game at Coors Field, three games have at least a 10-run over/under! This game is the highest at 10.5 with the Braves as favorites. Atlanta will be opposing Anibal Sánchez ($7,200) who has been nothing short of a disaster in three starts. It’s not even bad luck, he has a 7.75 FIP, a 50% hard-hit rate allowed and just a 19.1 K%. So basically, he’s not fooling anyone, opposing hitters are making good contact and nothing has gone right at all. Then we add the Braves into the mix, who have been one of the best offenses against righties with a .341 wOBA, a .208 ISO and a 41.6% hard-hit rate. This will be a tough spot to NOT love the Braves and I think with three games of at least 10 runs, ownership won’t be overly heavy here.
Other notable team totals: NYY (5.5) vs. BOS, LAD (5.5) vs. SEA
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Weather Concerns
BOS @ NYY — Likely going to need a look before lock, as rain will be in the area but may not necessarily interrupt the game. After studying weather in the seventh grade, my assessment is that it’s too early to tell as of the time of writing. To be honest, the Red Sox should just start a rain dance in the dugout.
Splits to Start
Note: This section will now show the combined stats from 2019 and 2020
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Jordan Lyles, .368, 5.88
Kyle Freeland, .330, 4.29
Anibal Sanchez, .327, 4.95
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Hyun Jin Ryu, .229, 3.47
Martin Perez, .261, 3.18
Gio Gonzalez, .264, 3.80
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Tyler Anderson, .387, 6.14
Kyle Freeland .366, 6.15
Martin Perez, .345, 4.97
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Hyun Jin Ryu, .280, 3.12
Touki Toussaint, .290, 3.99
Jordan Lyles, .292 4.09
Lineup Starters
Pitcher to Build Around
Zac Gallen, ARI vs. OAK, $8,800 — I’m going to steal one of my favorite Rick James quotes from “Chappelle’s Show” and twist it to use for tonight.
“I wish I had more hands, so I could give tonight’s pitchers FOUR THUMBS DOWN.”
Great show. Anyways, I’m not digging many options tonight and the guy I am on is in a tough matchup. The A’s have been a scary offense at times and with this game away from Oakland, this could get ugly. HOWEVER, Gallen does provide some solid strikeout upside and when the A’s aren’t cracking home runs they have a 25 K% against righties. Gallen is generating a 12.1% swing-and-miss rate, is limiting hard-contact at just 34.5% and has been showing some better-than-usual command. His 4.01 FIP isn’t bad either, so I’m hopeful Gallen can come through. Is he going to throw six shutout innings? Likely not, although that would be sweet. But, I’m really struggling to find an option I’m in love with.
Heavy Hitter to Pay For
José Abreu, CWS vs. DET, $4,700 — The good news is when we have a lack of pitching options that means we have a plethora (how’s that word?) of offensive weapons to choose from. I love stacking the White Sox and they have some great hitters to choose from. I’m rolling with Abreu because of his home run upside and Matthew Boyd ($8,900) already allowing five through 19 1⁄3 innings. Abreu against lefties since last season has a .398 WOBA with a .213 ISO. This should be a great spot overall for the White Sox but Abreu (and Yoán Moncada specifically) are my favorite options.
Save Big by Drafting
Kevin Pillar, BOS at NYY, $3,100 —Pillar should be atop the Red Sox lineup tonight as they take on the Yankees at Yankee Stadium. He continues to be underpriced and is in a prime spot against a lefty. Regardless of the matchup, Pillar has been crushing it lately, averaging 12 DKFP over his past five games. Since last season, Pillar boasts a .335 wOBA with a .244 ISO against lefties. Not bad numbers for someone who should be hitting leadoff and is underpriced.
Favorite Team To Stack
BAL vs. TOR (vs. Hyun Jin Ryu) — Say whatever you want, the Orioles have been legit this season, especially against lefties. Tonight, they’ll face off against Ryu, who has been a mixed bag with the Blue Jays. What is appealing for me is this game takes place at Camden Yards. Thus far against lefties, the Orioles sport a .396 wOBA (2nd) a .283 ISO (2nd) and just an 18.8 K% (26th). Lock. It. In.
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