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MLB Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Baseball DFS Predictions, Betting Odds for August 13

Steve Buchanan breaks down Thursday’s DraftKings MLB slate with pitching and hitting analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

Chicago Cubs v Kansas City Royals Photo by Ed Zurga/Getty Images

And you thought a 6:05 p.m. ET start time was early? Try a 4:05 p.m. ET start. Yup, this is an extremely early start for today’s main slate on DraftKings. Only six games in total are being played today and five of them are on this slate. Nonetheless, DraftKings is offering a number of contests to join for today.

As always, feel free to follow me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Set your DraftKings lineups here: MLB $175K Relay Throw [$50K to 1st]

Game Notes

Biggest Moneyline Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Jake Arrieta, $7,300, PHI (-200) vs. BAL (+165) — If Arrieta is the biggest favorite on a slate, you know it’s going to be a wild one. He’s only made two starts thus far and he’s been good in them, posting a 3.89 FIP with a 24.4 K% and just a 2.4 BB%. It’s not as if he’s had an easy schedule either against the Yankees and Braves so that’s encouraging. But, if we’re going to say nice things about Arrieta, we have to do so about the Orioles as well. The offense continues to be surprising as against righties they have a .330 wOBA with a .186 ISO. Entering this game, both of those stats rank within the top 10 in the league. So I wouldn’t say this an easy matchup for Arrieta by any means. The pickings are extremely thin on this slate so he’s one of the more attractive ones, but that’s not saying much.

Other notable favorites: Yu Darvish ($10,400; -190) vs. Brewers, Anthony DeSclafani ($8,200; -180) vs. Pirates

Highest Projected Total

TB (-162, 5.5 runs) vs. BOS (+138, 3.5 runs) 9.5 runs — The Rays are in another great position to put up some runs against the Red Sox, who are throwing another kid into their rotation for today. Kyle Hart ($5,100) will be making his major league debut, which feels like a common theme for the Red Sox this season. The lefty had some decent numbers in Triple-A last season but doesn’t generate many strikeouts and showed some inconsistent command at times. The Rays have power against lefties, so it wasn’t a surprise to see them with a 5.5 run total in this game. With the Red Sox’ pitching being among the worst in the league, I fully expect this to be the most popular stack on this slate and even wrote up about it over in my MLB Stacks article you can find here.

Other notable team totals: Phillies (5.5) vs. Orioles, Reds (4.5) vs. Pirates

Curious about when major leagues and events will return? Check out our DraftKings Sports Calendar for the latest updates.

Weather Concerns

BAL @ PHI (Citizens Bank Park) - This game does have rain in the forecast around game time but it does clear out later in the evening. With such an early start time, a delay is very likely and hopefully they can get this game in later on. Keep an eye on this one.

Splits to Start

Note: This section will now show the combined stats from 2019 and 2020

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Jake Arrieta, .384, 6.39
Trevor Williams, .374, 5.38
Tom Eshelman, .348, 7.21

Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Tyler Glasnow, .205, 2.23
Julio Urias, .287, 3.86
Chris Paddack, .294, 4.45

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Tom Eshelman, .400, 7.08
Trevor Williams, .324, 4.83
Jake Arrieta, .294, 3.57

Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Chris Paddack, .247, 3.41
Julio Urias, .252, 3.11
Anthony DeSclafani, .255, 3.42

Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Yu Darvish, CHC vs. MIL, $10,400 — On this slate, I will happily take the most expensive pitcher on the slate with solid strikeout upside facing the Brewers. If Darvish continues to have good command of the ball, which he is, his ceiling is sky-high. He’s posted 22.2 and 29.7 DKFP over his last two starts after a fairly rough outing against, ironically, the Brewers his first time out. I’m not letting that first outing deter me, as the Brewers continue to be one of the teams to target against righties with their 28.3 K%, which is second-highest in the league behind the Tigers at 31.3%.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Bryce Harper, PHI vs. BAL, $5,400 — If you read this whole article, which I would really appreciate it you did because I pour my heart and soul (kind of) in this every single weekday, you’d notice some really, REALLY poor numbers for Eshelman against lefties. So, naturally, I want someone like Harper in my lineup. Thus far against righties, Harper has a .392 wOBA with a .222 ISO and two of his four home runs. Not that I really need to sell you on Harper on a given day but truly, this is a great spot for him and the Phillies’ lefties.

Save Big by Drafting

Yandy Diaz, TB at BOS, $3,100 — Diaz is finally showing some signs of life at the plate, posting double-digit fantasy points in back-to-back games. He’s gone 5-for-9 in that span with three RBI and a walk. Tonight, he’ll be facing Hart, who I mentioned is making his major league debut. Diaz was so good against lefties last season that I’m hoping for more of that tonight at this basement salary. Last season in this matchup, Diaz posted a .402 wOBA with a .272 ISO and seven of his 14 home runs.

Favorite Team To Stack

TB at BOS (Kyle Hart; $5,100) — If you haven’t figured it out yet, I do like the Rays as my stack for tonight and a very cheap one to boot. With Hart likely not throwing long, the Red Sox bullpen will handle the bulk of the innings and that has been nothing short of a disaster. Coming into this game, the Red Sox’ bullpen has allowed a 44.3% hard-hit rate (11th) and a 4.08 FIP (14th). For more info and players I like for this stack, check out my MLB Stacks article here on DraftKings Playbook.

Set your DraftKings lineups here: MLB $175K Relay Throw [$50K to 1st]

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