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MLB Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Baseball DFS Predictions, Betting Odds for August 12

Steve Buchanan breaks down Wednesday’s DraftKings MLB slate with pitching and hitting analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

Wednesday features an eight-game start starting at 7:05 p.m. ET. Six of these games start within that hour while the remaining two don’t get going until past 9:00 p.m. ET.

As always, feel free to follow me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Set your DraftKings lineups here: MLB $250K Relay Throw [$50K to 1st]

Game Notes

Biggest Moneyline Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Zack Greinke, $10,300, HOU (-215) at SF (+180) — I’ll be totally honest, I absolutely hate this spot for Greinke. Do I think the Astros can win this game? Absolutely. Does that mean I’ll be getting Greinke into my lineups? Absolutely not.

The Giants are not a team that is striking out much. They’re 22nd in the league in K% vs. RHP at 22.1%. Greinke, who has only made three starts in his defense, has just an 18.6 K% in that span. His K% has been declining since back in 2017 with the Diamondbacks and and now he’s the most expensive pitcher on this slate. If I’m paying over $10K for a pitcher, I need strikeout upside to justify it. You’re simply not getting that with Greinke, who quite honestly should be in the mid-$8K range at this point. The Giants are not a scary offense to face and have been lacking in power with just a .133 ISO against righties but the upside is just not here to drop that much salary on Greinke.

Other notable favorites: Masahiro Tanaka ($7,600; -205) vs. Braves, Zach Eflin ($6,400; -195) vs. Orioles

Highest Projected Total

BAL (+165, 4.5 runs) vs. PHI (-195, 5.5 runs) 10 runs — No Coors Field game on this slate so we get to talk about two different teams for a change! I do like this game a lot in terms of scoring as Wade LeBlanc ($6,100) takes on Zach Eflin ($6,400). The Phillies jump out immediately against the lefty, as they have a number of bats you’ll be looking to target. It has been a really bad start for LeBlanc in the AL East, posting a 6.17 FIP, a 2.5 HR/9 and a 38% hard-hit rate to opposing hitters. Then we have the Orioles who have some solid, power lefties to go against Eflin, who posted a .356 wOBA with a 6.24 FIP and 17 of his 28 home runs allowed against them. This is most certainly a game you want exposure to.

Other notable team totals: NYY (5.5) vs. ATL, HOU (5.5) vs. SF

Curious about when major leagues and events will return? Check out our DraftKings Sports Calendar for the latest updates.

Weather Concerns

BAL @ PHI — Storms will be in the area earlier in the afternoon but should clear out as we get closer to first pitch. As of this morning, it looks as if they may have a delayed start but should be able to play. Keep an eye on this regardless.

TB @ BOS — Slight chance this game starts in a delay but should be smooth sailing after that.

Splits to Start

Note: This section will now show the combined stats from 2019 and 2020

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Trevor Cahill, .389, 6.07
Eric Lauer, .380, 5.04
Jordan Lyles, .366, 5.70

Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Tony Gonsolin, .244, 3.64
Zack Greinke, .254, 3.36
Kenta Maeda, .304, 4.59

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Wade LeBlanc, .357, 5.50
Zack Godley .353, 5.82
Trevor Cahill, .345, 6.16

Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Kenta Maeda, .227, 3.21
Zack Greinke, .271, 2.98
Masahiro Tanaka, .284 3.71

Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Kenta Maeda, MIN at MIL, $9,100 — It’s been a strong start in a Twins uniform for Maeda, who has allowed just five runs on eight hits with 16 strikeouts through 17 innings. Now he draws a matchup against a very strikeout friendly Brewers team, who boasts the second-highest K% against righties at 29%. Maeda has been limiting hard contact allowed with just a 28% hard-hit rate and has a 3.21 FIP in his first three starts. With the Twins expected to put up some runs against Eric Lauer, I think this is a great spot for Maeda to pitch well and come away with a W.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

J.T. Realmuto, PHI vs. BAL, $5,100 — I talked about how much I liked the Phillies stack earlier in this piece so I may as well run with one of their best hitters against lefties. Since the beginning of 2019, Realmuto has a .366 wOBA with a .269 ISO and a 48% hard-hit rate against lefties. I don’t see LeBlanc being able to limit the damage in this game, so Realmuto could have a few opportunities to knock in some runs with how well this team can hit lefties.

Save Big by Drafting

J.P. Crawford, SEA at TEX, $3,900 — I wasn’t expecting to be writing up the Mariners as much as I had but it IS 2020. I love this spot for their lefties against Jordan Lyles ($7,300), who was abysmal in those matchups last season with a .382 wOBA and a 5.90 FIP allowed when he was with Padres. Crawford was a sneaky play against righties last year, posting a .201 ISO and a .333 wOBA. I can’t imagine the Mariners will draw much attention tonight so the ownership on Crawford is the cherry on top.

Favorite Team To Stack

MIN at MIL (vs. Eric Lauer) — For a more in-depth look at why I like the Twins stack tonight, check out my MLB Stacks article that I have available for this evening. I’ll go over four of my favorites for this evening, including a couple you may be surprised about!

Set your DraftKings lineups here: MLB $250K Relay Throw [$50K to 1st]

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