Tuesday always features some of the best slates of the week and today doesn’t disappoint with 12 MLB games on the docket. Lineups will lock at 7:05 p.m. ET with a number of different DraftKings contest to join.
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Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Zack Wheeler, $9,900, PHI (-186) vs. BAL (+155) — This marks the third start of the season for Wheeler, who last pitched six days ago against the Yankees, allowing three runs (two earned) on six hits with two strikeouts. We don’t have a ton of data to go off of for Wheeler but he does have a 4.03 FIP and just a 12.5 K% thus far. The Orioles have been one of the tougher teams to strikeout with just a 21.1 K%. To that end, they also aren’t patient at the plate, as their 7.8 BB% is also one of the lowest. I’m more torn on Wheeler than I expected but I’m leaning toward passing on him simply at his price point. Yes, it’s a very small sample but I cant pay up for someone that is not generating strikeouts yet against a team that doesn’t do it much to begin with. The pitching options on this slate don’t blow you away but I’m passing on the heavy favorite.
Other notable favorites: Jordan Montgomery ($7,800; -162) vs. Braves, Ross Stripling ($7,900; -162) vs. Padres
Highest Projected Total
ARI (-113, 5.5 runs) vs. COL (-104, 5.5 runs) 11.5 runs — It didn’t take long for the over to hit in this game last night, as they reached 12 runs by the bottom of the fourth inning. I don’t think the fireworks will be like last night but I do like the D-Backs’ side this time around. Kyle Freeland ($7,000) is taking the mound for the Rockies and he’s put up some decent numbers on the surface. However, the 4.21 FIP, 45.3% hard-hit rate allowed and only a 15.7 K% has me thinking otherwise. The D-Backs are going to be a good offense against lefties so I’m thinking this is where Freeland comes crashing back down to Earth. As for the Rockies against Zac Gallen ($8,600), I’m not going out of my way here as he’s been their best starter. However, the D-Backs’ bullpen is among the worst in the league and have been logging a ton of innings as of late. In a tournament, it’s something to consider.
Other notable team totals: Yankees (5.5) vs. Braves, Astros (5.5) vs. Giants
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Splits to Start
Note: This section will now show the combined stats from 2019 and 2020
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Rick Porcello, .353, 4.66
Marco Gonzales, .341, 4.75
Jon Lester, .340, 3.55
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Gio Gonzalez, .265, 3.78
Martin Perez, .266, 3.27
Ross Stripling, .279, 3.46
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Tyler Anderson, .395, 5.82
Kyle Freeland, .370, 6.09
Tyler Alexander, .353, 4.07
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Max Scherzer, .225, 1.65
Zack Wheeler .270, 2.92
Touki Toussaint, .287 3.76
Pitcher to Build Around
Dylan Bundy, LAA vs. OAK, $9,700 — It’s odd to want to play a pitcher against a team that just put up nine runs against you last night. Bundy hasn’t been the most reliable pitcher in the past either but I really think the move to LA has done him wonders. For as good as the A’s were last night, they still only have a .315 wOBA and a .168 ISO against righties. The biggest appeal for me is the 26.5 K% they own, which is the fifth-highest in the league. Through three starts, Bundy has a 31.3 K% and an extremely impressive 2.5 BB%. While many will flock to Max Scherzer ($10,800) and I get that, I do worry about the possibility of re-injury. I’m not big on Wheeler, so Bundy being the next in line works for me.
Heavy Hitter to Pay For
Alex Bregman, HOU vs. SF, $5,800 — If you thought Coors Field had a lot of attention yesterday, think about tonight after they combined for 20 runs. With that in mind, I like shifting my attention to other high-priced bats in good matchups and Bregman fits that sentiment. He’s facing Tyler Anderson ($6,500), who has a 5.95 FIP despite a 2.19 ERA. He faces a very tough Astros lineup against lefties and specifically Bregman, who .446 wOBA and .342 ISO against lefties at Minute Maid Park.
Save Big by Drafting
Austin Nola, SEA at TEX, $3,700 — Nola has quietly put together a four-game hitting streak in which he’s averaging 14.7 DKFP with three doubles, a triple, home run and seven RBI. This evening, he’ll see Mike Minor ($9,600), who has struggled in back-to-back starts allowing a total of 11 runs on 13 hits through 10.2 innings. Now, Minor does have just a 3.52 FIP so far this season but I’m liking the cheap pop from Nola, who had a .282 ISO against lefties last season.
Favorite Team To Stack
WAS at NYM (Rick Porcello; $6,700) — The Nationals annihilated the Mets last night, scoring 16 runs. Eight of those came off starter Steven Matz, who lasted just 4.1 innings. With heavy usage by the bullpen, we could see a scenario where Porcello is left out longer than necessary, which could play into our stack perfectly. He’s not fooling anyone with just a 5.0% swing-and-miss rate through three starts, one of which came against this Nationals team. I know they didn’t have much success against them in his last start but if Porcello is relying on contact for outs, I’ll side with the Nationals here.
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