Monday’s MLB slate is a little smaller than usual, but that doesn’t mean we can’t still look for some value. There are 10 games to choose from, starting with the Phillies vs. the Braves at 6:05 p.m. ET.
Here are five of my favorite bets to target on Monday:
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres:
Padres ML (+175)
I think this matchup is a lot closer than the current odds indicate.
The Padres do have a tough matchup vs. right-hander Dustin May, who has been excellent through his first three starts this season. He’s pitched to a 2.60 FIP while striking out 9.88 batters per nine innings. He was considered the No. 32 overall prospect in 2019 before getting called up to the majors and he’s definitely lived up to that billing so far.
That said, the Padres have been awesome vs. right-handers to start the season. San Diego ranks second in wRC+ and first in ISO. The Padres have the potential to get to him.
San Diego will also be sending an underrated starter to the mound in Luis Perdomo. He pitched to a 3.60 FIP over 72.0 innings last season and he posted a 3.17 FIP over his first start in 2020. The Padres deserve to be underdogs in this matchup, but +175 is too much.
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox:
Tigers ML (+120)
I’m not giving up on Michael Fulmer yet. He got absolutely rocked in his first start of 2020, allowing four earned runs over 2 2⁄3 innings but that was his first start in nearly two full years. Fulmer won the AL Rookie of the Year award in 2016 and followed that up with an All-Star appearance in 2017. It’s possible that he isn’t the same pitcher after undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2019, but it’s way too early to make that judgement.
The Tigers also have a bunch of hitters who crush vs. left-handers, and they’ll be facing a southpaw today in Dallas Keuchel.
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals:
Nationals ML (-122)
The Mets have started to turn things around after a dreadful start but New York has a brutal matchup today vs. Patrick Corbin. He’s one of the better pitchers in baseball and he’s posted a 2.72 FIP through his first two starts this season. The Mets’ lineup is also very left-handed: Jeff McNeil, Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo, Robinson Cano and Dom Smith will all be on the wrong side of their splits. It’s possible the Mets bench some of those guys to get in more right-handed bats, but the tean doesn’t have many quality options to choose from.
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks:
Diamondbacks ML (+112)
This has been one of the most heavily bet games of the day and the majority of the professional action appears to be siding with the Diamondbacks. Arizona opened up at around +130 but have been bet down to just +112. The Diamondbacks have only received 22% of the moneyline bets in this contest, so why has the line moved so drastically?
Those bets have actually accounted for 46% of the money, so the majority of the big bets are siding with the Diamondbacks. When there is a showdown between the “sharps and squares” I definitely like to side with the professionals.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins:
Randy Dobnak Under 3.5 strikeouts (-109)
Monday’s slate is a little light on games, so let’s sprinkle in a player prop. Dobnak will get the start for the fourth time this season and he has been underwhelming in his first three outings. He’s logged three strikeouts or fewer in two of them, including just one strikeout in his last start. The lone exception was when he struck out four batters vs. the Indians, who have the fourth-highest strikeout rate vs. right-handers this season. Overall, Dobnak has averaged a K/9 of just 4.80.
It should be noted that the Brewers are an excellent matchup for strikeouts – Milwaukee has posted the second-highest strikeout rate vs. right-handers in 2020 – but I still think this line is off. -109 odds convert to an implied probability of just 52.16% and I think his true odds of going under are closer to 60%.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mlamarca) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.