Rankings below are based on a mixture of expected output and DraftKings’ NASCAR salaries for that day. The ordering is not based on the highest projected fantasy totals, but rather by value of each driver.
1. Chase Elliott ($9,100) - In 2018, Elliott’s car had long run speed at New Hampshire. His pass for the lead was a rare feat at New Hampshire and NASCAR in general. After winning stage 2, Elliott lost the lead on pit road and was unable to work his way back to the front (passes for the lead are rare).
2. Denny Hamlin ($10,400) - Based on average finish and wins, Hamlin is the best driver at New Hampshire. However, his stats are not gaudy; Hamlin’s average finish of 10th and his 3 wins barely separate him from the rest of the field.
3. Martin Truex, Jr. ($10,700) - He led over a quarter of the laps in the last low downforce New Hampshire race. This season, Truex won the last low downforce race at a flat track in Martinsville. The two tracks are not identical, but a fast setup at Martinsville should provide a strong base for a New Hampshire setup.
4. Kevin Harvick ($11,600) - SHR had the three best cars in the last low downforce race at New Hampshire. Harvick won the 2018 race, but it was not a dominant performance. It wasn’t a classy performance either; he moved Kyle Busch to earn the win. At the end of the day, wins are all that matter and Harvick has won three of the last five races at New Hampshire.
5. Aric Almirola ($8,500) - With 46 laps remaining in the 2018 New Hampshire race, Almirola had the lead and was on his way to his first non-plate track win. Unfortunately, there was a caution and Almirola lost two spots on pit road. The 13 year vet is still looking for his first non-plate track win.
6. Erik Jones ($8,900) - This year, Jones has won some DFS players a lot of money, and he’s lost those same players a lot of money. He’s been optimal in the last two races and four of the last seven. The rules seems to be that no matter how chalky Jones is, he’s a GPP play only.
7. Kurt Busch ($7,700) - Having the pole helped Busch score the most fantasy points in the 2018 New Hampshire race, but it does not account for all of his laps led points. Busch finished stage 2 in second and regained the lead on pit road. Busch’s ability to stay near the front enabled him to lead the most laps and ran the most fast laps.
8. Kyle Busch ($9,300) - A return to the low downforce package should help Kyle Busch. He will still be without practice, but it’s undeniable that Busch has struggled in the full throttle package. What has made Kyle Busch one of the greatest stock car racers of all-time has been his ability to limit off throttle time. With the return of the low downforce package, Busch’s skill will be valuable again.
9. Christopher Bell ($10,100) - One of the best and worst ways to evaluate rookie talent is to analyze their Xfinity stats. Bell won both of his Xfinity races at New Hampshire. He led 93 laps in the 2018 race and 186 of the 200 laps in the 2019 race.
10. William Byron ($7,900) - Phoenix and Martinsville are not that similar to New Hampshire, but they’re the best that DFS players have. All three tracks have flat turns, and are low downforce tracks. Byron earned a top 10 in both races.
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11. Clint Bowyer ($7,200) - At the flat, low downforce tracks (Phoenix and Martinsville), Bowyer had an average position of 11th. Most DFS players could care less about the NASCAR playoffs, but it is worth paying attention to. Bowyer is safe at the moment, which means he’ll be very conservative each week curbing his GPP appeal.
12. Brad Keselowski ($9,500) - He won the last low downforce race, but that was at Bristol. Not only is the track a terrible comparison, but a handful of better cars wrecked. Keselowski needs pit road magic, and this race could be full of low downforce spins or it could be a green flag lap turner in stage 3.
13. Ryan Newman ($6,600) - Kansas was his fourth bad race since nearly dying. In the other 10 races, his average finish is exactly 15th place. It’s so strange that Newman’s stats are always 15th. If you count all of the letters in his name (Ryan Joseph Newman) it’s exactly 16 letters. Close enough.
14. Alex Bowman ($8,100) - Within the next couple weeks, someone will float the idea that Bowman and his team have been experimenting. Their poor season is the result of qualifying for the playoff in March. Keselowski and Hamlin have tried this excuse before, and when the playoffs arrived, they continued to stink.
15. Joey Logano ($9,800) - In 2015, Logano had one of the best cars for both New Hampshire races. The 2015 package was a high downforce package. This year, New Hampshire is a low downforce race similar to 2016-2018. In those races, Logano was a 10th place driver.
16. Tyler Reddick ($7,500) - New Hampshire is not a short track, but it’s not an intermediate track, either. With the exception of a Bristol win aided by every star wrecking, all of Reddick’s Xfinity wins were at intermediate tracks and plate tracks. Reddick isn’t bad at the shorter, heavy breaking tracks, but he’s clearly better at high speed, super speedways.
17. Ryan Blaney ($11,100) - Over the last four seasons, Blaney has steadily improved at New Hampshire with each race. Last year, Blaney finished fourth at New Hampshire, his best finish yet. This year Blaney has been great everywhere except in the low downforce races. He had fast cars in both races, but he wrecked early in each.
18. Michael McDowell ($6,300) - Nearly every race since the season resumed have been high downforce, low horsepower races. Front Row Motorsports has built some solid cars for these races. New Hampshire is a change of pace, and McDowell’s top 20 consistency may take a week off.
19. Ryan Preece ($5,600) - This might be Preece’s last chance. After four straight DNFs and being ranked 31st in the standings, the rumors of Preece’s firing aren’t rumors anymore. New Hampshire is his home track and his favorite track. If there was one track that could save his career, this is the track.
20. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. ($6,800) - The gamble comes down to whether Stenhouse wrecks or not, and frankly speaking, that’s not a good bet. His volatility is common knowledge and that suppresses his ownership, but in GPPs it‘s worth taking a swing at a driver that can finish 15th and is starting outside of the top 30.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.