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MLB Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Baseball DFS Predictions, Betting Odds for July 27

Steve Buchanan breaks down Monday’s DraftKings MLB slate with pitching and hitting analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

MLB: Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Indians Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

The first full weekend of the 2020 has come and gone and boy was it wild. The Marlins, Tigers and Orioles are all 2-1 in the early going. We have a potential outbreak within the Marlins organization and we’ve already seen a number of players go down, including Justin Verlander. WE’RE JUST GETTING STARTED, BABY!

This piece will cover the nine-game slate that locks early 6:40 p.m. ET, so make sure you lineups are ready for that. As always, feel free to follow me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

EDITOR’S NOTE: Tonight’s games between the Orioles and Marlins and Yankees and Phillies have been postponed.

Set your DraftKings lineups here: MLB $600K Relay Throw [$100K to 1st]

Game Notes

Biggest Moneyline Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook

Josh James, $8,600, HOU (-265) vs. SEA (+225) — After pitching 47 of his 48 appearances out of the bullpen last season, James was penciled in as the fourth starter in the Astros’ rotation. He has only made four starts in the majors and allowed a .276 wOBA with a 3.59 FIP, a 30.8 K% and two home runs allowed through 16 1/3 innings. The Mariners are going to be a team to pick on for strikeouts all season long, producing a 24.1 K% here in the early going of 2020 and 23.8% overall last season against righties. On a slate where we don’t have many options jumping out at us, James is one of the safer plays on this slate.

Other notable favorites: Adrian Houser ($8,300; -158) vs. Pirates, Tyler Glasnow ($8,900; -152) vs. Braves

Highest Projected Total

NYY (-137) vs. PHI (+120) 10.5 runs — The Yankees boast a 5.5 team total in their matchup against the Phillies and specifically, Jake Arrieta ($7,000). The biggest knock against Arrieta last season was that he struggled immensely against lefties with a .387 wOBA, a 6.39 FIP and 14 of his 21 home runs allowed. The Yankees lineup is very right-handed heavy with the exception of Aaron Hicks ($4,300) and Brett Gardner ($4,200). Not saying the Yankees can’t hit Arrieta because quite frankly, they can hit anyone. To be fair, Arrieta was great against righties at home, allowing a .289 wOBA, a 3.91 FIP and only three home runs. Is this a stay away spot from me? I could never legitimately write that the Yankees are a team I’m avoiding, but if the field is going to be overweight on them, I may be looking in a different direction.

Other notable team totals: Cubs (5.5) vs. Reds, Brewers (5.5) vs. Pirates, Astros (5.5) vs. Mariners

Weather Concerns

CHC at CIN (Great American Ball Park) - Simply put, it’s looking like a nasty night for baseball in Cincy. Not only is it going to be extremely humid with winds blowing in from right field, heavy rain is expected. Unless the forecast changes throughout the day, this looks like a stay-away spot, but keep an eye on this one!

MIL at PIT (PNC Park) - This game looks as if it’ll start off without any issues, but they’re expecting rain later in the evening, with the chances of it growing the later it gets. This will be worth monitoring, as they may be able to get this game in, but it’s looking more like a tournament game to target rather than a cash game.

CHW at CLE (Progressive Field) - Another very humid game on the docket with winds blowing out to center field. A chance of an in-game delay is possible, but overall, this looks as if they’ll start on time and be able to finish.

Splits to Start

Note: This section will show stats for 2019 until Aug. 6.

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP

Jake Arrieta, .387, 6.39
Dylan Cease, .380, 6.27

Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP

J.A. Happ, .280, 4.07
Wade Miley, .282, 5.02
Mike Foltynewicz, .307, 5.31

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP

Gregory Soto, .399, 6.36
Michael Wacha, .371, 5.72
Steven Brault, .351, 5.21

Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP

Tyler Glasnow, .253, 2.75
Aaron Civale, .261, 4.02
Adrian Houser, .265, 3.71

Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Tyler Glasnow, TB at ATL, $8,900 — I originally wanted Pablo Lopez in my lineups for tonight, but that game has since been cancelled due to an outbreak of COVID-19 within the organization. Glasnow is a fine consolation prize even in a tough matchup against the Braves. He was downright nasty last season on the road through 33 innings, allowing just a .171 wOBA with a 1.55 FIP and one of his four home runs allowed. On a slate where the pickings are extremely thin, Glasnow looks awfully appealing.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

José Ramírez, CLE vs. CWS, $5,000 — Ramirez and Cleveland will be taking on Dylan Cease ($9,400), who is curiously one of the more expensive pitchers on this slate. Cease made 14 starts last season and showed some excellent strikeout upside but had trouble dealing with lefties. Against them on the road, Cease allowed a .351 wOBA with a 5.40 FIP and four of his 15 home runs allowed. As for Ramirez, he boasted some of his best power at home against righties with a .225 ISO, a. 335 wOBA and six home runs.

Save Big by Drafting

Miguel Cabrera, DET vs. KCR, $3,100 — We’re going all the way down the list for Cabrera tonight, who is facing off against Mike Montgomery ($6,500). Look, I know no one really wants to play Cabrera and he doesn’t come close to the numbers he put up in his prime, but he still very good against lefties. Last season, Cabrera posted a .403 wOBA with a .216 ISO and four of his 12 home runs. If I covered his name up and posted those numbers and said this player is $3,100, you’d take him. It also doesn’t hurt that Montgomery had a .350 wOBA and 5.49 FIP against righties.

Favorite Team To Stack

NYM at BOS (Josh Osich/Zak Godley) — This is a bullpen game for the Red Sox today, opening up a great scenario for the Mets’ offense. The key here is targeting against Godley, as Osich likely is only getting an inning or two at the most. Godley struggled against both sides of the plate so you really can’t go wrong with any type of stack here. Michael Conforto ($5,000), Yoenis Céspedes ($4,300) and Pete Alonso ($5,600) are my three favorites here while mixing in two others.

Set your DraftKings lineups here: MLB $600K Relay Throw [$100K to 1st]

Favorite Prop Bet

Jake Arrieta UNDER 4.5 strikeouts (-124) - While I think Arrieta will be a bit surprising against this Yankees’ offense tonight, I’m not counting on him to go over 4.5 strikeouts. His K% has been declining over the span of the last three seasons and he ended 2019 at 18.5%. For reference, his final year with the Cubs in 2017 he was at 23.1%. Of his 24 starts last season, 11 of those would have been under the 4.5 mark, which was good for 45.8% of his season. I’m liking the under on this total.

To place this bet on the DraftKings Sportsbook, click here.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

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