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MLB Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Baseball DFS Predictions, Betting Odds for July 24

Steve Buchanan breaks down Friday’s 11-game DraftKings MLB slate with pitching and hitting analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

I’ll be the first to admit that I didn’t think we’d be talking about an MLB season in 2020. In fact, I even went on my Twitter account (@SBuchanan24, cheap plug) numerous times saying I’m over it. Well, I’m a total fraud and am super excited baseball has begun. I’ll be providing this article throughout the week along with some of the other talented baseball writers on DraftKings Playbook. Let’s get into all the information for Friday’s 11-game slate!

Set your DraftKings lineups here: MLB Million Dollar Swing [$1M Guaranteed, $250K to 1st]

Game Notes

Biggest Moneyline Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook

Justin Verlander, $11,400, HOU (-335) vs. SEA (+265) — While Opening Day (usually) trots out the best of the best in terms of pitching, the Astros by far are the biggest favorites on this slate. Verlander will take the mound against the Mariners, who will offer an immense amount of strikeout upside. Guys like Mitch Haniger, Austin Nola, Shed Long, Daniel Vogelbach and Mallex Smith all had a K% of at least 26% against righties last season. Now, they’ll face the ace of the Astros staff who generated a 35.4% last season and just a 5.1 BB%? Yeah, good timing for Seattle to introduce a hockey team so fans can turn their attention to something else.

Other notable favorites: Ross Stripling (-278) vs. Giants, Shane Bieber (-245) vs. Royals

Highest Projected Total

BAL (+190) vs. BOS (-225) 10 runs —With the thought the teams are running out their best pitching options, it’s not a surprise to see most games projected in single-digits. The Orioles and Red Sox are the only game projected in double-digits thanks to Tommy Milone ($4,000) pitching in place of John Means. Milone has been a disaster as a starter over the past two seasons and was usually saved for the bullpen. When he did start, Milone threw 53 1/3 innings allowing 29 runs on 61 hits with a .342 wOBA and a 4.13 xFIP. Of those 61 hits allowed, 27 went for extra bases. With that in mind, it’s no surprise to see the Red Sox with a 5.5 team run total. If you’re stacking the Red Sox, J.D Martinez ($4,800) and Xander Bogaerts ($4,900) are your anchors.

Other notable team totals: Indians (5.5) vs. Royals, Astros (5.5) vs. Mariners, Dodgers (5.5) vs. Giants

Weather Concerns

Clear night of baseball ahead!

Splits to Start

Note: This section will show stats for 2019 until August 6th

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP

Nathan Eovaldi, .391, 7,84

Marco Gonzales, .343, 4.91

Tommy Milone, .340, 5.37

Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP

Madison Bumgarner, .237, 2.63

Justin Verlander, .239, 2.97

Lucas Giolito, .241, 3.35

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP

Nathan Eovaldi, .345, 4.17

Madison Bumgarner, .318, 4.29

Danny Duffy, .318, 4.82

Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP

Brandon Woodruff, .240, 2.35

Jack Flaherty, .245, 2.92

Justin Verlander, .247, 3.58

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Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Jack Flaherty, STL vs. PIT, $9,000 — I can’t believe Flaherty is only the sixth-most expensive pitcher on this slate. The reigning NL Cy Young Award winner (at least he is in my heart, the award actually went to Jacob deGrom) has a cake of matchup to open the season against the Pirates. Not only did Pittsburgh lose Corey Dickerson and Starling Marte in the offseason, but the team will also be without Gregory Polanco, who is out due to COVID-19. This matchup should provide plenty of strikeout upside while being devoid of any real power threats aside from Josh Bell ($4,400). Even WITH those good bats they lost during the offseason, Flaherty still threw 15 innings against the Pirates allowing one run on eight hits with 18 strikeouts. Oh, did I mention the .204 wOBA and 1.81 FIP as well?

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

J.D. Martinez, BOS vs. BAL, $4,800 — I mentioned this earlier and I’ll keep the theme going. The Red Sox are in a fantastic position to start the season off 1-0 (which is unfortunate because I like the under on the Sox’ season total, thanks a lot Baltimore). With Milone taking the mound, he’s going to have to deal with some of these Red Sox bats that annihilated left-handed pitching last season. At Fenway Park, Martinez posted an insane .517 wOBA with a .492 ISO. He easily could be one of the more expensive players on this slate but he feels like a steal at $4,800. Be prepared for high ownership here, however.

Save Big by Drafting

Jay Bruce, PHI vs. MIA, $3,900 — Bruce is set to be the primary DH for the Phillies this season against righties. With that in mind, he draws a great matchup against Sandy Alcantara ($6,800). When Alcantara was on the road against lefties, it was a nightmare for him, posting a .352 wOBA with a 4.75 FIP and nine of his 23 home runs he allowed. Bruce isn’t someone who’ll go 4-4 for you but his .310 ISO against righties is mighty fine for someone under $4K.

Favorite Team To Stack

OAK vs. LAA (Andrew Heaney) — Everyone is going to be stacking the Red Sox tonight and that’s fine, I have zero problem with that other than the expected high ownership. So, if you want to look at another team to consider at a fraction of the ownership, the A’s might be that team. Oakland is a powerhouse against lefties with numerous players ending the 2019 season with an ISO of at least .220. Heaney didn’t pitch a ton last season but he did post a 1.8 HR/9 through 95 13 innings.

Set your DraftKings lineups here: MLB Million Dollar Swing [$1M Guaranteed, $250K to 1st]

Favorite Prop Bet

Pittsburgh Pirates UNDER 3.5 runs (-132) - I’m honestly surprised this is at 3.5. Initially, before looking at DraftKings Sportsbook total, I expected this to potentially be at 2.5. Nope! Flaherty allowed a total of 10 runs in the ENTIRE SECOND HALF OF THE SEASON in 2019. I don’t think the Pirates are going to score nearly half of that in this game with a very depleted lineup. Take the under, smile and move on with your day.

To place this bet on the DraftKings Sportsbook, click here.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

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