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July Update: The Rockies were a team I was low on heading into 2020 and I’m even lower on Colorado with the abbreviated format. Ian Desmond opted out of playing this year, which will cost Colorado a key bat in an already thin order. Nolan Arenado could wind up being a trade candidate by the deadline, which would put this team out of contention immediately. Coors Field stacks will always be popular and should help boost this offense’s numbers but don’t look for anything spectacular. I’ll be stacking more visitors at Coors than the home team. I’ve already played the under on the Rockies’ win total for 2020.
After going to the postseason in 2017 and 2018, the Rockies regressed in a big way in 2019. Colorado went just 71-91, and face a 2020 season that could see them become sellers before the trade deadline. The Rockies were still a top-10 offense in terms of runs per game, but almost all of that was thanks to Coors Field. Basically, we play the Rockies at home, a setting in which they averaged an MLB-high 6.17 runs per game, but fade them on the road, scoring just 4.14 runs per game. Part of the issue for the Rockies was pitching, both home and away. Colorado had the second-worst ERA in baseball last season.
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DraftKings Sportsbook odds
— Division Winner: +2800
— League Winner: +7000
— World Series: +15000
Key Departures:
Yonder Alonso, 1B
Key Acquisitions:
None
2020 Fantasy MVP
Nolan Arenado, 3B
Arenado is the most consistent fantasy stud in baseball. Over the last five years, his lows are 155 games played, 37 home runs and 110 RBI. So for as long as he has Coors Field to boost his stats, this is a top-10 fantasy player — and I’d consider him in the top-5. Trevor Story could make things interesting, but Arenado is the MVP here until further notice. If Colorado is forced into making a move to unload salary prior to the deadline, Arenado could see his value take a hit.
2020 Fantasy LVP
Ryan McMahon, 2B
McMahon had a breakout season in 2019, hitting 24 homers in 141 games. He was a really solid value play at times, but I have too many concerns to invest highly in him in 2020. McMahon hit just five home runs in 91 games a season earlier, and I’m considering his real role could be somewhere in-between his last two seasons worth of production. This is primarily a utility player, so it’s always possible he doesn’t see quite as many at-bats this season.
2020 Breakout Player
Kyle Freeland, SP
Pitching was a massive issue for the Rockies last season. German Marquez and Jon Gray could’ve been much better, but Freeland was the biggest letdown. In 22 starts, he went just 3-11 with a 6.73 ERA. But this is a 26-year-old lefty that managed a 2.85 ERA in 33 starts in 2018. There’s no point in giving up on him. A bounce-back would be massive for his value.
Final Thoughts:
It’s unlikely this is going to be a good season to back the Rockies. With no key additions, Colorado is just banking that everything comes together with their young pitching staff, which is extremely unlikely to play out. If things go downhill early, Arenado could wind up being traded prior to the deadline. I like an under play here when it comes time to asses win totals. From a DFS standpoint, we’ll obviously continue to target hitters at Coors. Perhaps an Arenado trade would create some value if it goes down.
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