It’s hard to know what a sleeper even is anymore when it comes to Fantasy Football, but, for the purposes of this article, we’ll use the term to mean an asset that’s likely to be undervalued heading into a given week. A player that’s going to be overlooked when it comes to ownership, yet one that has a reasonable path to make people regret that decision. Someone who might set your lineup apart from the pack in a GPP, if you will.
With that in mind, let’s go position-by-position for an early look at Week 14’s slate on DraftKings.
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QUARTERBACK
Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers vs. Atlanta Falcons, $6,800
I wouldn’t even say that Herbert had a bad performance against the Patriots last week, as it was more depressing than anything. The Chargers lost 45-0, while their rookie QB completed less than 50% of his 53 passes and threw two interceptions. Still, in a weird way, the stark contrast of that game almost stands as a positive for Herbert’s overall DFS value. It was the first time all season that the Oregon product didn’t score at least 19.0 DKFP and it ended a run of seven starts where Herbert had been averaging an incredibly impressive 27.3 DKFP. I mean, we’re still talking about a quarterback that has basically done nothing but exceed expectations going back to his Week 2 debut versus the Chiefs. In fact, in that span of time, Herbert leads everyone in the NFL in drop backs (500) and pass attempts (455), which has translated into 23 touchdowns and six 300-yard showings — a figure that trails only Patrick Mahomes ($8,100) and Deshaun Watson ($7,600). Raheem Morris does have the Falcons playing better on defense, yet the man isn’t Bill Belichick. Look for Herbert to get back on track this Sunday in a matchup with a team conceding the sixth-most DKFP to opposing QBs in 2020. Also, look for him to get back on track while a majority of people roster Mahomes, Russell Wilson ($7,900) or Aaron Rodgers ($7,500).
RUNNING BACK
Todd Gurley, Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Chargers, $4,800
Speaking of Morris, the Falcons’ head coach was clear earlier this week when he said Gurley would have a larger role in this Sunday’s game, after the veteran was limited to a 33% snap share and eight carries in the team’s 21-16 loss to the Saints. That makes sense for a couple of reasons. First, Gurley had been questionable with a knee issue prior to the defeat, but should be operating at closer to 100% health as he distances himself another seven days from the injury. Second, you can’t run against New Orleans anyway, so even try? To wit, the Saints enter Week 14 ranking second in the NFL in rush defense according to DVOA. Much lower on that list is the Chargers, who have surrendered a whopping 144.3 opponent rushing yards per game across their last three matchups. If Gurley can get back to his usual role — one that’s seen him lead all NFC running backs in red zone carries (46) and average a roughly 60% snap share — this projects as a solid spot to hit his fantasy ceiling. Heck, at by far his lowest price point of the season, he might not even have to be that good to bring back value on this slate.
WIDE RECEIVER
Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals vs. Dallas Cowboys, $4,800
This might be one of those fantasy situations where you insert Higgins into a couple of lineups and then purposefully never watch a single snap of this game. Let’s not mince words here, this is obviously a very risky situation to try and exploit. Not only are the Bengals without first-overall pick Joe Burrow (knee), but backup QB Brandon Allen ($4,900) left Sunday’s loss to Miami with a chest injury; possibly leaving Ryan Finley ($4,300) as the team’s signal caller in Week 14. Finley, for those wondering, is averaging a putrid 3.9 adjusted yards per attempt for his brief NFL career. He’s a bad quarterback and that obviously effects Higgins’ ceiling. Still, dating back to the beginning of Week 2, it’s the rookie wideout that leads Cincinnati in air yards (957), aDOT (12.6) and receiving touchdowns (5). He’s the No. 1 wide receiver on a squad that’s about to square-off with a defense that’s allowed an NFL-worst 32.8 opponent points per contest and an equally awful 7.7 opponent yards per pass attempt across its past three matchups. If Higgins sees his usual volume, it’s hard to imagine he won’t be able to take advantage of Dallas’ inefficiencies. I’m trusting the individual talent in this spot.
TIGHT END
Jacob Hollister, Seattle Seahawks vs. New York Jets, $3,100
As tempted as I am to just keep rolling with whatever tight end happens to be facing the Bengals, I get the impression that Dalton Schultz ($3,500) could be the object of a little too much interest this weekend. So, with that in mind, let’s pivot to another low-end TE that benefits almost entirely from matchup. Don’t get me wrong, there are definitely things to like about Hollister’s receiving ability and how much his role has expanded since Greg Olsen (foot) was placed on IR, but this is all about the Jets. New York has basically has to assemble its secondary with duct tape the past few games and the result has been conceding an average of 318.7 opponent passing yards since the beginning of Week 11 — the worst mark of any team in that stretch. Somehow, the Jets have managed to be even more underwhelming when it specifically comes to TEs. New York’s surrendered 11 touchdowns to opposing tight ends in its 12 contests in 2020, with five of those 11 coming in this hellish three-week span. I’ll bet on Hollister to keep that trend going.
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