I was pretty pumped up for the Champions Classic last Tuesday, but this week Super Tuesday is on a whole different level. I’ve had a few of these spots circled since, well, Wednesday. Needless to say, I like this card, and feel we’re going to see some dogs barking! Here’s what jumps out to me on DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Creighton +4.5 (-114) vs. Kansas
This is a really interesting spot early in the season, as Kansas hasn’t passed the test in any of its big games yet. On the flip side, Creighton has looked fantastic, but this will be its first real test of the season. The Blue Jays have stomped out ND State, Omaha and Kennesaw St. by an average of 24.3 points per game. While Creighton lost some firepower from last season, it still has a veteran starting five with great versatility. Meanwhile, Kansas is still figuring itself out, and having some early season growing pains. The talent is there for the Jayhawks, but with two massive seniors departing, the consistency isn’t there yet. Somewhat keeping pace with Gonzaga was impressive, but this team nearly lost to ND State on Saturday, pulling away by just four points in the final seconds as massive 20-plus point favorites. Last week’s narrow comeback victory over Kentucky is looking less and less impressive, as the Wildcats got dominated by an 0-2 Georgia Tech squad on Sunday. Give me the Jays outright here.
Ohio State -4.5 (-115) vs. Notre Dame
Notre Dame is being overvalued here, playing just two games and failing to cover either. The 10-point loss to Michigan State wasn’t quite as close as it looked, and Sunday’s eight-point win over Detroit was sloppy. Meanwhile, Ohio State is a better team than the market indicated, still putting some weight on an outlier 10-point win over UMass Lowell. In the other two contests the Buckeyes have played, they’ve been full speed ahead — a 27-point victory over Illinois State and a 33-point win over Morehead State. Ohio State is the much better team, and should dominate the paint.
North Carolina +4.5 (-108) vs. Iowa
Luka Garza is really good, averaging 34 points and 10 boards per game. Iowa hasn’t done anything to show weakness yet, smashing three tomato can opponents by over 30 points per game. However, will be the Hawkeyes’ first test, and it gets a very solid UNC team that’s faced a lot of quality opponents — defeating Stanford and narrowly losing to Texas. There’s just not a ton behind Garza we can trust with Iowa, while the Tar Heels have a nice balance of veteran leadership, and a terrific class of talented freshman. Like Creighton, I’ll sprinkle on the moneyline here, but will be counting on UNC to keep this one close. The one man show won’t work in this matchup.
Illinois +3.5 (-107) vs. Duke
This one I think you could even split your bet with the Illini moneyline and take the points, as I feel the wrong team is favored. Once again, Duke lands the home game here like it did last week against Michigan State. But after a slow start from the Spartans, they dominated the rest of the game and won handily — 75-69 makes it look a bit closer than it was. As you’d imagine, Duke has all the talent in the world. Jalen Johnson is the real deal, but this isn’t the Zion Williamson/RJ Barrett class. Without veteran leadership early in the season, I expect the Blue Devils to struggle some against a polished team of vets. Illinois dominated its first two games, then slipped up and narrowly got by Ohio. I think that, combined with a 13-point loss to Baylor, has them undervalued in the market here. If you watched the Baylor game, it was a very well played game for about 32 minutes, and then Baylor pulled away — but Gonzaga and Baylor are on their own level this season, I won’t fault anyone for losing to them. The combo of Ayo Dosunmu and Kofi Cockburn is the best on the floor, and there are other key role players that can contribute.
Creighton/Ohio State/North Carolina/Illinois ML parlay (+1967)
This is not at all a best bet, but just a little lottery ticket in case we’re right about the dogs barking loud on Super Tuesday. Little pizza money brings back a pretty nice return here.
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