NFL Predictions: Football Player Prop Bets to consider on DraftKings Sportsbook for Week 13

It’s Week 13 in the NFL, and it’s once again time to survey each game for value player props. I am holding my nose and taking a chance on Taysom Hill, and backing a pair of elite wideouts to hit low totals against soft matchups. Here are my favorite prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook.

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Taysom Hill over 189.5 passing yards (-114)

Look, no one is happy about it, but the New Orleans Saints really want to make Taysom Hill a thing. They’ve tried so hard to make him the focal point of this offense that even Alvin Kamara — one of the most talented skill position players in football — has fallen by the wayside. Hill went for 233 yards just two weeks ago in a win over the Falcons, who boast one of the worst secondaries in football. Though he did throw just 23 times, he was much more dangerous with his legs against the Falcons, and I think Sean Payton will force the issue with Hill’s arm to try and counter Atlanta’s adjustments. He’s not a great passer, but even Hill should be able to hit 190 against a team allowing over 290 passing yards per game.

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Kyler Murray under 246.5 passing yards (-125)

It’s always a scary sight fading one of the best quarterbacks in football, but I think this is as good a spot as you’re going to find. The Rams’ secondary has quietly entered elite territory, ranking third in passing yards per game (203.5) and fourth in DVOA against the pass. This is due in large part by the tremendous play of fourth-year safety John Johnson III and Darious Williams, who’s in the midst of a career year at corner. Together with household names like Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey, this defense has driven L.A. right back into playoff contention. This game will be enormous in the race for the NFC West and the NFC Wild Card, and the defense should show up in a big way. Murray has really struggled in the passing yards department with just 241 per game over his past four contests and is dealing with a bit of a shoulder issue to boot. He should opt to use his legs a lot more against a formidable defense, thus going under on this prop.

Justin Jefferson over 4.5 receptions (-150)

The Jaguars have one of the softest secondaries in football, allowing over 279 yards per game this season, and they’ve allowed 10 five-catch games this season. Jefferson has rapidly distinguished himself as one of football’s most talented wideouts and is plenty capable of hitting this number against a team that’s already looking forward to next year’s draft, even with the return of Adam Thielen. Jefferson’s received 9.3 targets per game over the Vikings’ past three and made six catches on average. Back him to stay hot.

Tyler Lockett over 59.5 receiving yards (+100)

Yes, calling big Tyler Lockett games has been a tall task this season, but this number is too low for me. Lockett should match up in this one with Giants corner Darnay Holmes, who has been awful this season, ranking 110th among 125 at his position, according to PFF. His man has been targeted 46 times this year, which is 54th among corners, and Lockett has still managed more than eight targets per game this season despite just four last week. Russell Wilson should have a field day and considering that D.K. Metcalf has another tough matchup this week against James Bradberry, it’s possible that Wilson opts to attack Holmes a bunch on Sunday. Sure, we saw last week that Metcalf can beat a difficult matchup, but Bradberry rates considerably better than Darius Slay, and it’s going to be so easy for Lockett to get open that he will likely force Wilson’s hand plenty of times. We already know there’s a strong connection and that he gets the ball plenty. That should not change this week.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jetsfan196) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.